The College Football Playoff selection committee faces its most difficult initial ranking of the season as only three undefeated teams enter November, matching the fewest since the playoff’s 2014 inception, ESPN reported. Ohio State limps into the month with multiple losses for the first time since 2011, leaving the committee to weigh head-to-head results against schedule strength and efficiency metrics.
How do the committee’s opening projections shape the SEC playoff bubble?
Georgia, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Texas currently occupy the projected “would be in” bracket for the SEC. ESPN reported that Ole Miss holds the second-best chance in the conference to reach the playoff at 61.5%, though the Rebels sit in a precarious position due to a lopsided loss to Florida. Committee members will weigh that road defeat against victories over ranked opponents LSU and Missouri. Meanwhile, LSU sits as the first team out in the SEC, despite ranking No. 5 in total efficiency and outscoring back-to-back conference opponents by a combined 69-17 margin.
Can Ohio State and USC survive the Big Ten playoff race?
Indiana, UCLA, and Ohio State currently anchor the Big Ten’s projected playoff spots, but the Buckeyes hold an uncertain position at No. 10. Freshman starting quarterback Luke Fahey was in the lineup for Ohio State against USC, directing an offense that was held without a touchdown on its first nine drives. Despite two losses, the Buckeyes benefit from playing the No. 18-ranked schedule and ranking No. 9 in ESPN’s strength of record metric. USC remains right behind them as the conference’s first team out, holding an 8.7% chance to reach the Big Ten championship game with upcoming road matchups against Indiana and UCLA.
Will the selection committee reward BYU or Utah in the Big 12?
BYU and Utah lead the Big 12 projected bracket, though Utah carries questions regarding an 83rd-ranked strength of schedule and rankings outside the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiencies. BYU holds a head-to-head win against Notre Dame, but committee members harbor skepticism due to an 8-point loss at UCF. Texas Tech sits as the first team out in the conference, boasting a 45.2% chance to reach the Big 12 title game after a win against Arizona.
Release schedule and playoff probabilities for top contenders
When is the first College Football Playoff ranking released?
The selection committee releases its first of six Top 25 rankings on Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
What are Notre Dame’s playoff chances before playing Miami?
Notre Dame holds a 79.2% chance to reach the College Football Playoff according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, with ESPN’s FPI giving the Irish a 61.3% chance to win Saturday’s home matchup against Miami.
Which Group of 6 team holds the highest playoff probability?
Boise State holds a 61.9% chance to reach the playoff, leading all Group of 6 contenders according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
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