Europa League Preview: Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest – A Clash of Styles and Potential Cards

Nottingham Forest travels to the MCH Arena on Thursday seeking to overturn a 1-0 deficit from the first leg of their Europa League last-16 tie against FC Midtjylland. Despite a dominant performance in possession and shots on goal at the City Ground, a late goal from Guesung Cho has left Forest with work to do in Denmark.

Forest’s Statistical Disconnect

The first leg highlighted a frustrating trend for Vítor Pereira’s side. Nottingham Forest enjoyed 57.5% possession, outshot Midtjylland 22-6, and led the expected goals (xG) battle 1.72-0.69 [Sky Sports]. However, they failed to convert this dominance into a goal, ultimately falling to a 1-0 defeat.

Midtjylland’s Home Fortress

Midtjylland will be confident on their home turf, where they have been formidable this season. The Danish side has only lost once at home across all competitions (W15 D6 L1) [The Guardian] and maintain a 100% record in home matches within this Europa League campaign. This strong home form presents a significant challenge for Nottingham Forest.

Referee and Potential for Cards

The appointment of Felix Zwayer as the referee adds an interesting dynamic to the match. Zwayer has a reputation for a high card count, averaging 4.96 cards per game in Europa League matches, and 5.21 cards per game when combining Europa League and Champions League appearances [Sky Sports]. He has issued red cards in 31% of his 70 appearances and has sent off four players in six European games this season. His last ten Europa League knockout appearances have yielded 56 yellow cards and four red cards.

Betting Opportunities

Considering Zwayer’s officiating style, several betting opportunities present themselves:

• A red card in the match: Available at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
• Both teams to have a red card: Available at 50/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
• Philip Billing to be carded: Available at 9/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes) – Billing has three cards in eight European appearances this season.
• Elliot Anderson to be carded: Available at 15/4 (bet365) – Anderson has a history of accumulating cards, with 16 in the Premier League since the beginning of last season.
• Billing and Anderson to be carded: Available at 12/1 (bet365)

Looking Ahead

Nottingham Forest faces a difficult task in Denmark, needing to overcome both a one-goal deficit and a strong Midtjylland side on their home ground. The referee’s propensity for issuing cards suggests a potentially feisty encounter, offering opportunities for astute bettors.