European security is undergoing a fundamental reassessment. The assumptions that defined the continent’s post-Cold War stability have been dismantled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and shifting political currents in the United States. A former Norwegian defense attaché argues that European nations can no longer rely on the belief that borders are fixed, that economic interdependence prevents conflict, or that the U.S. will indefinitely serve as the ultimate guarantor of European security.
NATO Faces a Multi-Front Hybrid Threat
For decades, European foreign policy rested on the premise that international law would dictate state behavior and that military force was of diminishing relevance. Russia’s ongoing aggression has rendered these assumptions obsolete. NATO now identifies Russia as the most significant and direct threat to the security of its members. Beyond conventional military maneuvers, this threat includes a spectrum of hybrid actions: sabotage of critical infrastructure, cyberattacks, large-scale disinformation campaigns, and the use of economic pressure to destabilize Western institutions.
A Strategic Vacuum in Transatlantic Ties
The policy trajectory of the Trump administration has further complicated security. Statements questioning the value of European military contributions, alongside threats to the territorial integrity of allies, signal a departure from traditional alliance commitments. This has created a strategic vacuum. European leaders now face the prospect that the U.S. may negotiate security arrangements over the heads of its partners while simultaneously resetting relations with Moscow. The resulting friction has fueled trade disputes and forced a questioning of the NATO framework as a singular shield against Russian expansionism.
Moscow’s Imperial Ambitions
Regional observers view the conflict in Ukraine not as a localized dispute, but as a central component of a broader strategy to re-establish imperial influence. Moscow has presented various narratives to the West, ranging from the annexation of specific Ukrainian territories to the broader concept of the “Russian World.” This doctrine encompasses the historical territories of the Kyiv Rus, the Grand Duchy of Moscow, the Russian Empire, and the Soviet Union.
The Goal of a New Geopolitical Perimeter
Integration of Ukraine into a Russian-led sphere—ideally in tandem with Belarus—would provide Moscow with the demographic, economic, and industrial capacity to challenge the United States and China. By moving its military capabilities significantly closer to major European capitals like Berlin, Paris, and London, Russia seeks to force a retreat of NATO to its 1997 borders. Ultimately, Moscow aims to limit the ability of the U.S. to deploy forces or nuclear assets within Europe.
Brazen Operations Against the Alliance
Since 2014, Russia has intensified its hybrid operations against NATO member states, a reality formally recognized by the European Parliament in September 2021. These activities have become increasingly brazen. They include the GPS jamming of civil aviation, the unauthorized entry of military drones into sovereign airspace, and direct targeting of the European defense industrial base. As these incidents rise, European policymakers face an urgent need to synchronize their response to a neighbor that explicitly defines the West as its primary adversary.