A comprehensive new study published in the Journal of Economic Growth reveals that between 45% and 55% of governments worldwide misreported COVID-19 mortality data during 2020 and 2021, with underreporting proving far more common than overreporting. According to researchers Ariel Karlinsky of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and Professor Moses Shayo of Hebrew University and King’s College London, nations officially reported 5.08 million pandemic deaths across those two years, whereas actual global COVID mortality is estimated at 12.47 million.
Comparing Official Counts to Excess Mortality Estimates
To evaluate the accuracy of government figures, Karlinsky and Shayo assembled mortality datasets spanning 134 countries and territories, utilizing records from national statistical offices, population registries, and health ministries. By comparing officially logged COVID-19 fatalities with excess mortality—defined as deaths above the number that would normally have been expected minus non-COVID excess factors—the researchers uncovered vast discrepancies in how countries tracked the public-health crisis. Across the board, underreporting dominated the global picture, showing that official statistics routinely failed to capture the true scale of loss during the initial waves of the pandemic.
Institutional Checks and State Capacity Explain Discrepancies
The research examines whether variations in basic state capacity, such as a country’s baseline ability to diagnose illnesses, register deaths, and maintain functioning statistical networks, could fully explain the missing numbers. According to the findings published in the Journal of Economic Growth, state capacity accounts for only a minor fraction of the global variation in reporting accuracy. Instead, a much stronger correlation emerges when analyzing institutional constraints. Nations equipped with robust institutional checks and balances displayed significantly less underreporting. Furthermore, misreporting decreased in areas where citizens had better access to education and the internet, enabling them to scrutinize official declarations more effectively.
Political Pressures and the Reliability of Public Data
The authors also identified higher rates of misreporting among countries that held elections during the pandemic and nations with a communist legacy, though they stress these specific observations remain descriptive rather than causal. The overarching takeaway points to systemic incentives for governments across various political systems to present information favorably. Ultimately, the study suggests that strong institutions and an informed public serve as vital safeguards in protecting the reliability of official information when nations face acute crises.
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