JAKARTA, KOMPAS.TV – The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) announced the potential for heavy to very heavy rain in a number of regions in Indonesia on Sunday (15/2/2026).
BMKG forecaster Afif Shalahuddin explained that Tropical Cyclone Seed 96S is predicted to still be in the southwest Indian Ocean, Banten, with a maximum wind speed of 20 knots and moving westward.
According to him, the seeds of this Tropical Cyclone form an area of convergence and confluence that extends around the system.
“The potential for Tropical Cyclone Seed 96S to become a Tropical Cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is in the low category,” he said as quoted from a post on Instagram @infobmkgSaturday (14/2/2026).
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He explained that low pressure areas were observed in the northern mainland of Australia, and cyclonic circulation was observed in the northern waters of West Kalimantan.
This system forms an area of convergence and confluence that extends from the Sulawesi Sea to North Kalimantan and around the system.
Other convergence areas are also estimated to extend from North Sumatra to Jambi, the southern waters of Banten to the southern coast of West Java.
“In the Indian Ocean South of Java, from North Sulawesi to the Maluku Sea and in the Arafuru Sea,” he said.
“Confluence areas are predicted to form in the waters of western Sumatra, the Indian Ocean South of Java, the Banda Sea, the Flores Sea, the Savu Sea, the East Sea, the Halamahera Sea and the Arafuru Sea,” he said.
He said that this condition could increase the potential for rain cloud growth around areas of low pressure or cyclonic circulation, and along areas of convergence or confluence.
The combination of atmospheric dynamics, continued Afif, causes quite significant weather potential in several regions in Indonesia.
“It is necessary to increase preparedness for the potential for heavy to very heavy rain in the regions of North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Banten, West Java, Central Java and the special region of Yogyakarta,” he said.
For the western part of Indonesia, be alert for the potential for thunderstorms in Tanjung Pinang and also Banjarmasin.
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Then there is also the potential for light rain in most of Sumatra, Java and Kalimantan.
“For the eastern part of Indonesia, be aware that there is the potential for moderate rain in Kendari, Kupang, Nabire and Merauke,” he said.
“Then there is also the potential for light rain in Denpasar, Mataram, Manado, Mamuju, Makassar, Ternate, Manokwari, Jayapura and Jayawijaya,” he said.
Potential for cloudy and thick clouds in Gorontalo and Ambon. Then there is the potential for smoke or fog and hazy air in Sorong and Palu.
date:2026-02-14 12:30:00