A developing El Niño weather pattern is threatening rain-fed agriculture across Southern Africa with below-normal rainfall and extreme heat, according to forecasts released by the Southern African Development Community in August.
Regional climate outlooks indicate dry conditions will persist from October 2026 into early 2027, raising severe risks for staple crops like maize, sorghum, and groundnuts in countries including Zimbabwe, Zambia, Botswana, and South Africa, agrifocusafrica.com reported.
Instead of ploughing the entire land, I only disrupt the specific spot where plants will grow,
farmer Dudzai Matsapa told RFI at his farm in Nyanga, east of Harare.
Matsapa digs small, shallow pits across his field and fills them with organic manure to capture water and concentrate nutrients ahead of the dry season. He has embraced zero-tillage techniques and planted drought-resistant crops such as short-term maize varieties, groundnuts, sunflower, sorghum, and millet since 2021, according to rfi.fr.
Fellow farmer Dodzo has also reported a decline of 50 percent in harvests during droughts, though this is still enough to feed his family, rfi.fr reported.
In Sesheke, Zambia, farmer Nswau Kufanga grows an early maturity, drought-resistant local maize variety known as kafwamba. Kufanga stated that the variety matures in a few months without needing much water, allowing her to get a better harvest even during dry seasons, rfi.fr reported.
Benjamin Mtembo of Zambia’s Ministry of Agriculture reported that harvests across 14 villages in Sesheke demonstrate that farmers using agroecology see better harvests during droughts, rfi.fr noted. Faides TembaTemba, executive director of ActionAid Zambia, urged the government to move beyond policy recognition and actively finance agroecology as a national priority, rfi.fr reported.
The October 2026 crop-monitoring outlook highlighted poor crop establishment risks in southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and parts of Angola and South Africa due to low soil moisture, agrifocusafrica.com reported. Agrifocusafrica.com noted that irregular rainfall and prolonged dry spells could severely disrupt crop development during critical growth stages.
Matsapa expressed readiness for the approaching conditions, telling rfi.fr, I have already done my part. Now, I am just waiting.
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