Iran’s World Cup Status in Doubt Amid Middle East Conflict; Iraq and UAE Potential Replacements

The upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup is facing uncertainty regarding Iran’s participation due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Should Iran withdraw, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates are considered the most likely teams to take their place in the tournament, which is co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

Growing Concerns Over Iranian Participation

Doubts about Iran’s ability to compete were publicly voiced by Mehdi Taj, president of the Iranian Football Federation, who stated, “After this attack, we cannot be expected to look at the World Cup with hope.” The Guardian reports that this statement followed recent attacks.

FIFA’s Position and Regulations

FIFA has acknowledged the situation and stated its focus is on ensuring a safe tournament with full participation. However, FIFA’s regulations regarding the replacement of qualified teams are vague, granting the organization “sole discretion” to take necessary action and potentially replace a withdrawing team with another association.

Iraq as Frontrunner for Replacement

Iraq is currently positioned as the leading candidate to replace Iran. The team recently defeated the United Arab Emirates in a play-off, earning a spot in an intercontinental play-off against Bolivia or Suriname on March 31st in Monterrey, to determine another finalist. FIFA sources indicate that if Iraq does not qualify through this route, they would be first in line to fill Iran’s potential vacancy.

UAE as Alternative

Should Iraq secure direct qualification through the play-off, the United Arab Emirates would likely be awarded Iran’s spot as the highest-ranked Asian team that did not initially qualify for the tournament.

Geopolitical Considerations and Visa Issues

The situation is further complicated by existing geopolitical tensions. The U.S. Government has imposed restrictions on Iranian citizens entering the country, with limited exceptions for the national team. PBS NewsHour reports that several Iranian leaders, including Mehdi Taj, were previously denied visas for the World Cup draw held in Washington D.C. In December.

Historical Precedent

A withdrawal by Iran would be a rare occurrence in the modern era of the World Cup. The last instance of a team withdrawing after the draw took place in 1950, when France and India cited travel costs as the reason for their absence.

Iran’s Qualification and Schedule

Iran qualified for the World Cup by winning Group A of the third AFC qualifying phase. They have scheduled matches against New Zealand and Belgium in Los Angeles, and against Egypt in Seattle.