Israelis Return Home to Vote in a Sharply Polarized General Election
Israelis headed to the polls on Tuesday in a general election that could end the long tenure of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or plunge the country into prolonged political deadlock. Some voters flew in from destinations across Europe, Asia, and the Americas to cast ballots in person, as Israel does not allow most of its citizens to vote from abroad.
High Stakes and Fragmented Blocs in the 120-Seat Knesset
The election represents the first time citizens have voted since the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led invasion of southern Israel and the ensuing war that have changed the face of the Middle East. Final polls published before a Friday blackout showed neither Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc nor the opposition change bloc approaching the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The Netanyahu bloc has between 48 and 54 seats against 52-56 for the change bloc.
Military Background and Political Rivalries Shaping the Campaign
Gadi Eisenkot has emerged as Netanyahu’s primary challenger, running on his record as a former military chief of staff who served under Netanyahu from 2015 to 2019. Eisenkot entered politics in 2022 alongside Benny Gantz and later joined Netanyahu’s emergency war cabinet following the October 7, 2023, attack before resigning in June 2024 over a lack of post-war strategy. At the same time, Netanyahu’s Likud party presented voters with the phrase “right or Palestine,” a campaign message crafted to alarm right-leaning citizens worried that left-wing allies would formally acknowledge a Palestinian state.
Arab Voter Turnout and Coalition Arithmetic
Arab citizens make up around a fifth of Israel’s population and could determine the final outcome. Turnout among Arab voters was just over half at the last election, in 2022. Mauricio Lapchik, a campaign director for the Joint List, expects it to reach at least 70% this time. Even though Eisenkot has barred Arab factions from joining a future administration unless they fulfill specific demands—such as designating Hamas a terrorist group—he has not ruled out depending on external backing from them.
Draft Exemptions and Ultra-Orthodox Anxieties
In ultra-Orthodox areas such as Bnei Brak, voters focused heavily on religious seminary draft exemptions. Eisenkot promised an equal military draft for all citizens.
Next Steps and Possible Deadlock
The main TV stations will publish exit polls at 8pm Tuesday (Irish time) when polling stations close, with final results expected by Thursday at noon. If neither political bloc manages to assemble a working coalition government, the nation faces a period of political stalemate that could lead to fresh elections in 2027, with Netanyahu remaining in office as a caretaker prime minister.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why can’t Israeli citizens vote from abroad?
Israel doesn’t allow most of its citizens to vote from abroad. Consequently, some travel back to Israel to cast their ballots.
What is the threshold for parties to enter the Knesset?
Political parties must cross a 3.25 per cent electoral threshold to win a minimum four seats in the 120-seat Knesset, a margin that can prove critical in closely contested races.
How has the war affected Gadi Eisenkot personally?
Gadi Eisenkot lost his youngest son, Gal, 25, who was killed fighting in Gaza in December 2023, along with two nephews who also died in combat during the conflict.
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