Korean Stocks Face a Three-Day Gauntlet: U.S. Inflation, CoreWeave Earnings, Options Expiry
Korean stocks, which fell sharply after the U.S. midterm elections on fears of a pullback in artificial intelligence investment, now face three market-moving events next week: the October U.S. consumer price index, the third-quarter results of AI cloud company CoreWeave, and the expiry of Kospi 200 monthly options, according to the financial investment industry, stock.mk.co.kr reported.
The events land on consecutive days. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October CPI at 10 p.m. Korean time on Nov. 10. CoreWeave will hold its third-quarter earnings call at 7 a.m. Korean time on Nov. 11 — before the Korean market opens — and Kospi 200 monthly options expire on Nov. 12.
October CPI Sets the Rate Tone on Nov. 10
The October CPI is viewed as a gauge of the interest-rate outlook. In September, the CPI rose 3.7% from a year earlier, and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.6%.
Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, said that if inflation comes in above expectations, the possibility of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes grows, which would weigh on stocks; if disinflation is confirmed, U.S. Treasury yields could stabilize and recently battered growth stocks could attempt a rebound.
In the domestic market, the key watchpoint is how the moves in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar immediately after the release are reflected in the won-dollar exchange rate and foreign investor flows on Nov. 11.
CoreWeave Results Test AI Investment Appetite on Nov. 11
Because both the U.S. CPI and CoreWeave’s results will be released before the Korean market opens on Nov. 11, analysts expect the market’s opening reaction that day to reflect both interest-rate and AI-investment sentiment at once.
The key question in CoreWeave’s results is whether its data centers come online on schedule and the backlog of orders converts into revenue. Kim Se-hwan, a researcher at KB Securities, warned that the biggest remaining risk is slower revenue recognition due to delays in power connections or unfinished data centers. If operations begin later than expected, revenue will drop while interest expenses are still being recorded, potentially postponing any improvement in the company’s debt position.
Options Expiry on Nov. 12 Can Move Blue-Chip Closing Prices
On Nov. 12, Kospi 200 monthly options expire. When investors unwind spot or futures positions tied to options trades, orders can pile up in the final stretch of the session, and large-cap closing prices can swing.
The precedent cuts both ways. Ahead of the Sept. 10 quadruple witching, foreigners net sold 35.7 billion won of Kospi 200 call options and net bought 353.2 billion won of puts — a defensive positioning — yet the Kospi recovered much of its morning losses to close down just 0.25%. On the Oct. 8 monthly options expiry, however, the Kospi fell 2.62% even though Samsung Electronics reported better-than-expected third-quarter results and its stock still dropped about 2%; that day, options expiry coincided with ETF rebalancing and pre-holiday position adjustments, and foreigners and institutions together net sold roughly 4.3 trillion won in the main board.
Brokerages say the U.S. CPI and CoreWeave results released ahead of the expiry will steer sentiment toward semiconductor blue chips. If foreign spot selling continues after both releases and program selling joins in during the final minutes of the expiry day, the index’s decline could widen. But if stocks moved sharply only in the closing auction, investors should check whether the same supply-and-demand direction carries into the next trading day.
Lee of Daishin Securities said the domestic market, which plunged on uncertainty over rates and AI investment, is likely to look to next week’s U.S. inflation data and CoreWeave’s results for a turnaround in sentiment.
What Remains Unknown After This Week’s Releases
Neither the October CPI reading nor CoreWeave’s revenue conversion is known yet, and the size of the Nov. 12 options-driven order flow won’t be clear until the expiry session itself. What is established is the sequence: inflation data at 10 p.m. on Nov. 10, CoreWeave’s call before the open on Nov. 11, and the Kospi 200 options expiry on Nov. 12 — three sessions in a row in which rates, AI investment, and derivatives supply will each test the market.
Worth a look