Gaza Death Toll Significantly Higher Than Reported, Lancet Study Finds

A new study published in The Lancet Global Health estimates that more than 75,000 Palestinians were killed during the first 15 months of Israel’s military assault on Gaza, a figure substantially higher than previously reported by Gazan health authorities.

Study Details and Findings

The peer-reviewed study, published on February 19, 2026, found that approximately 75,200 Palestinians died violently between October 7, 2023, and January 5, 2025. The Lancet notes this figure exceeds the 49,090 deaths reported by Gaza’s Ministry of Health (MoH) during that period. Researchers also estimated an additional 16,300 non-violent deaths, including 8,540 excess deaths, attributable to the conflict’s indirect consequences.

The study indicates that women, children, and the elderly comprised 56.2% of the violent deaths, a demographic breakdown consistent with reports from Gaza’s health ministry. CBC News reports this aligns with previous reporting from the Gaza Ministry of Health.

Methodology

The research involved surveying 2,000 Palestinian households over seven days, beginning on December 30, 2024. The fieldwork was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, led by pollster Khalil Shikaki, and the study was authored by Michael Spagat, a professor at Royal Holloway, University of London. Action on Armed Violence highlights Spagat’s expertise in war mortality estimation, with prior studies in Kosovo and Iraq.

Validation of Gaza Health Ministry Data

The study’s findings challenge claims that the Gaza Ministry of Health inflated the death toll. Instead, the authors suggest the MoH provided conservative and reliable figures despite operating under extremely challenging circumstances. The New Arab reports the study validates the demographic reporting of the Ministry of Health.

Current Death Toll

As of February 20, 2026, Gaza health officials report a death toll exceeding 72,000, a figure Israeli authorities recently acknowledged as accurate after more than two years of initial denial.

Looking Ahead

Professor Spagat noted that a complete accounting of all deaths in Gaza may take a long time, if it is ever possible. Further research and independent verification will be crucial to understanding the full human cost of the conflict.