Oireachtas Housing Committee Hears Claims of Inflated Completion Figures
Unfinished homes are being forward counted in official housing statistics, distorting the property market, according to academic evidence presented to the Oireachtas Joint Committee on Housing. Lorcan Sirr, a senior lecturer at TU Dublin’s School of Surveying and Construction Innovation, told the committee that housing completion figures are grossly overcounted due to reliance on electricity grid connections, The Journal reported. In a previous appearance before the committee in 2016, Sirr stated that new house completions were inflated by 58% over a six-year period. That earlier analysis revealed that automatic ESB grid connections counted milking parlours, workshops, garden sheds, and vacant homes returning to use as brand-new dwellings. While the Central Statistics Office (CSO) subsequently refined its methodology, the agency still relies on ESB connection data to track housing supply. Sirr told lawmakers that an electricity connection does not indicate a completed dwelling because properties receive power long before construction finishes. Concrete shells lacking flooring, kitchens, bathrooms, and plastered walls enter official completion tallies simply because they possess power. Consequently, these ESB connections mean dwellings are not legally fit for occupancy, resulting in forward-counted completions that amplify any future drops in actual supply. To fix the data distortion, Sirr recommended linking local authority planning systems, Certificates of Compliance on Completion, the CSO’s Residential Property Price Index, and the Residential Tenancies Board’s Rent Index. Making compliance certificates mandatory would close current opt-out gaps, though he noted this addition would introduce compliance costs of between €3,000 and €5,000 for a new home. The Building Control Management System (BCMS), an online platform used to submit statutory building notices and completion certificates, currently lacks consistent data collection across jurisdictions. Sirr pointed out that assigned certifiers and builders enter development data manually, leaving local authorities to verify it independently. Reforming the BCMS to enforce a standardized data format across all 31 local authorities is necessary to ensure consistent record-keeping, he said. Cormac Halpin, a senior statistician at the CSO, is scheduled to address the committee regarding potential reasons for discrepancies in housing numbers.
Housing Data Discrepancies and Market Distortion FAQ
Why does an ESB connection not mean a home is finished?
New buildings routinely connect to the electricity supply months before construction finishes. According to Lorcan Sirr, concrete shells missing kitchens, bathrooms, flooring, and interior plastering are counted as completed homes by the CSO simply because they have power.
How did the 2016 housing data inflation occur?
In 2016, TU Dublin lecturer Lorcan Sirr informed the Oireachtas committee that new house completion statistics were inflated by 58% over a six-year period. The figures incorrectly included milking parlours, workshops, garden sheds, and vacant properties returning to use because those structures received automated ESB grid connection numbers.
What changes are being proposed to fix housing completion numbers?
Sirr recommended making Certificates of Compliance on Completion mandatory through the local authority planning system. He also urged reforms to the Building Control Management System to ensure uniform data formatting across all 31 local authorities.