The North Carolina Tar Heels are navigating a volatile offseason, and the biggest question mark currently surrounding the roster is guard Matt Able. After transferring from NC State, Able has emerged as a high-interest prospect for both head coach Michael Malone and NBA scouts. With the 2026 NBA Draft approaching, Able faces a pivotal decision: leap to the professional ranks now or utilize another year of college eligibility to refine his game in Chapel Hill.
NBA Draft Stock: The Houston Rockets Connection
Matt Able’s stock has risen significantly over the last few months, transitioning from a promising collegiate transfer to a legitimate NBA prospect. According to the latest 2026 NBA Mock Draft from ESPN, Able is projected to be selected 39th overall by the Houston Rockets.
To further gauge his professional standing, Able was invited to the 2026 NBA Draft Combine. The event, held from May 10-17 at the Wintrust Arena and the Marriott Marquis in Chicago, serves as a critical evaluation period where scouts and league executives analyze a player’s physical metrics and skill sets. For a second-round projection like Able, the Combine is less about securing a spot and more about “due diligence”—gathering essential feedback to determine if his current stock warrants bypassing college.
The Case for Staying at UNC
While the allure of the NBA is strong, the risks of being a borderline second-round pick are substantial. Second-round selections lack the guaranteed contracts and playing time afforded to first-rounders. For Able, staying at UNC offers a safer path to development and significant financial upside through NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) opportunities.
Able proved his efficiency during his lone season at NC State, where he established a reliable baseline of production. His freshman campaign stats include:
- Scoring: 8.8 points per game
- Rebounding: 3.4 rebounds per game
- Efficiency: Nearly 80 percent from the free-throw line
Bringing this “scoring punch” to Michael Malone’s system could allow Able to evolve from a role player into a primary offensive threat, potentially boosting his draft stock for the following year.
Roster Implications for Coach Michael Malone
The potential exit of the 6-foot-5, 205-pound guard would leave a significant void in the Tar Heels’ backcourt. Coach Malone is already managing a shifting roster; the program recently saw 5-star recruit Dylan Mingo de-commit to sign with Baylor, and Florida Atlantic transfer Maxim Logue withdrew his commitment shortly after announcing he would join the program.
If Able opts for the Houston Rockets or another NBA franchise, UNC will likely pivot to the following options to fill the gap:
- Internal Promotion: Isaiah Denis or Jaydon Young would likely move into starting roles.
- External Acquisition: Malone may look toward the transfer portal or international markets to secure another guard.
Able is not the only Tar Heel on the NBA radar. In the same ESPN mock draft, Caleb Wilson is projected 4th overall to the Chicago Bulls, and Henri Veesaar is projected 25th overall to the Los Angeles Lakers.
Key Takeaways: Matt Able’s Crossroads
| Factor | NBA Route (Pro) | UNC Route (College) |
|---|---|---|
| Draft Projection | 39th Overall (ESPN Mock) | Potential First-Round Rise |
| Financials | Second-round contract | NIL opportunities |
| Risk Level | High (No guaranteed playing time) | Low (Developmental growth) |
| Roster Impact | Opens spot for Denis/Young | Solidifies backcourt scoring |
Frequently Asked Questions
In ESPN’s latest mock draft, Matt Able is projected to go 39th overall to the Houston Rockets.
Able is a 6-foot-5, 205-pound guard.
The combine runs from May 10-17 in Chicago at the Wintrust Arena and the Marriott Marquis.
Final Outlook
Matt Able stands at a crossroads that defines the modern era of college basketball. While the Houston Rockets’ interest provides a tantalizing glimpse of professional life, the stability of the UNC program and the financial incentives of NIL make staying in Chapel Hill a compelling option. Whether he chooses to test the professional waters or mold his game under Michael Malone, Able’s trajectory suggests he will be a focal point of the basketball conversation throughout the summer.
Worth a look