Record Rainfall and Agricultural Surge Propel Morocco’s Economic Growth in 2026
Morocco recorded a national rainfall average of 462 mm during the 2025–2026 agricultural campaign, marking a 50% increase over the 2015–2020 average of 307.9 mm, fr.le360.ma reported. This dramatic shift followed a dry 2024–2025 campaign that yielded just 293 mm, and three preceding campaigns that ranged between 223 mm and 271 mm. According to the economic and financial report, the abundance of water completely transformed the nation’s agricultural output, doubling cereal harvests and sharply lifting GDP growth.
The bulk of the precipitation arrived during the winter months. Data from the General Directorate of Meteorology, cited in the compensation report, showed that the national winter average for 2025–2026 reached approximately 136 mm compared to a normal 71 mm. This made it the third wettest winter recorded since 1981, trailing only 2010 and 1996. The document also noted heavy snowfall and a record number of rainy days across multiple regions, accompanied by a more even temporal and spatial distribution than in previous years.
Cereal Harvests and Crop Yields Double Across Farms
The winter downpours directly boosted farm productivity. Cereal production for the 2025–2026 campaign reached an estimated 90 million quintals. This total comprises 44 million quintals of soft wheat, 21 million quintals of hard wheat, and 25 million quintals of barley. By comparison, the 2024–2025 campaign produced only 43 million quintals, marking a 109% surge. Compared against the average of the previous ten campaigns, production advanced by 50.6%, while the yield per hectare climbed from 16.4 quintals in 2024–2025 to 23.1 quintals in 2025–2026.
Pre-season government measures supported this harvest. The presentation note highlighted the distribution of 1.5 million quintals of certified seeds, 650,000 tonnes of fixed-price phosphate fertilizers, and a direct-seeding program covering 400,600 hectares. Authorities aim to raise the share of national seeds from 20 to 50% and expand direct seeding to one million hectares.
Olive, Citrus, and Sugar Production Reach New Highs
Other agricultural sectors expanded significantly alongside cereals. Olive production hit a record 2 million tonnes, up 111% from the previous campaign. Citrus output reached 1.9 million tonnes, representing a 25% increase, while date production rose to 160,000 tonnes, a 55% jump that marks its highest level ever recorded. Sugar production is projected to reach approximately 300,000 tonnes in 2026, recovering from 280,000 tonnes in 2025 and 191,000 tonnes in 2024 following a 51% drop between 2021 and 2024.
Agricultural and agri-food exports climbed 8.3% during the first eight months of 2026, following a 4.6% increase over the same period in 2025. Monthly figures showed double-digit growth starting in June, with gains of 25.9% in June, 19.4% in July, and 21.1% in August. By the end of August 2026, food industry sales grew by 13.6%, while sales of agricultural, forestry, and fishery products increased by 3.6%.
Reservoirs Recharge and Cereal Imports Shift
The rainfall rapidly replenished national water reservoirs. The overall dam fill rate stood at roughly 38% on December 29, 2025, up from 28.5% a year earlier. By October 12, 2026, national reserves climbed to 11.1 billion cubic meters—a 108% increase over October 12, 2025—bringing the fill rate to 65.7% compared to 32.1% at the same time in 2025.
Improved pastures allowed for a reduction in livestock feed imports. The compensation report linked this improvement to a drop in barley imports, which fell from 9.2 million quintals in the 2024–2025 campaign to 5.51 million quintals in 2025–2026, a 40% decrease. It also noted the conclusion of emergency drought and livestock reconstitution programs that had mobilized roughly 12 MMDH between 2025 and 2026 to support over one million herders.
Despite stronger domestic yields, total cereal imports continued to rise, reaching approximately 105.7 million quintals for the 2025–2026 campaign compared to 99 million quintals in 2024–2025, representing a 7% increase. Soft wheat remained the largest import category at 51 million quintals—about 48% of the total—followed by maize at 36.7 million quintals.
Macroeconomic Impact and Projected Slowdown for 2027
The economic report credits the rainfall with driving a major portion of national economic growth. Agricultural value added expanded by 8.2% in 2025. In 2026, it rose by 18.4% in the first quarter and 21.2% in the second quarter, up from 8.3% in the second quarter of 2025, averaging 19.8% for the first half of the year. For the full year of 2026, agricultural value added is expected to jump by 18%, pushing overall GDP growth to 4.7% after a 4.9% expansion in 2025.
Growth is projected to moderate in 2027. With the harvest expected to drop back to 70 million quintals under baseline scenarios, agricultural value added will likely grow by only 0.5%, bringing overall GDP growth down to 3.7%. The government intends to rely on non-agricultural activities, expected to grow by around 4%, to offset the slowdown.
Meanwhile, adverse weather temporarily disrupted other industries. Cement sales fell by 10.9% in the first quarter of 2026 due to exceptional weather conditions in January and February, though they later recovered to post a 1.2% increase by the end of September 2026.
Flood Costs and Infrastructure Repair Budgets
Excessive precipitation also triggered destructive floods across northern and western Morocco during the winter of 2025–2026. Emergency interventions carried out under royal instructions prompted a May 20, 2026 decree opening 20 MMDH in supplementary credits. Out of this total, 2 MMDH went toward flood-related expenses, 8 MMDH to the compensation fund, and 4 MMDH to reinforce the capital of public enterprises.
The Treasury Special Accounts fund for natural disasters transferred 500 MDH to the general budget to aid flood victims in the north and west. The accounts report notes that this fund has financed 340 flood prevention projects costing a total of 4.70 MMDH, with 1.61 MMDH covered directly by the fund, alongside 192 new project applications for 2026 that remain under review.
Road networks also sustained significant damage. The road network preservation program has allocated approximately 500 MDH for 2027 to repair flood damage from 2024 to 2026 and restore infrastructure in regions affected by the 2023 Al Haouz earthquake, with the goal of bringing 80% of the network into good or very good condition by 2030.
Answers to Common Questions About Morocco’s 2025–2026 Agricultural Season
How much did the 2025–2026 cereal harvest increase compared to the previous year?
Total cereal production reached an estimated 90 million quintals for the 2025–2026 campaign, representing a 109% increase over the 43 million quintals recorded during the 2024–2025 campaign.
What were the primary drivers behind the successful harvest besides rainfall?
The government distributed 1.5 million quintals of certified seeds, provided 650,000 tonnes of fixed-price phosphate fertilizers, and implemented a direct-seeding program across 400,600 hectares prior to the planting season.
How did the heavy rains impact national dam water reserves?
The overall dam fill rate rose to 65.7% by October 12, 2026, with national reserves totaling 11.1 billion cubic meters—a 108% increase compared to the same date in 2025.
What economic growth rate is projected for Morocco’s agricultural sector in 2027?
Agricultural value added is projected to grow by only 0.5% in 2027, as the harvest is expected to fall back to 70 million quintals following the exceptional output of 2026.
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