An estimated US$5.3 trillion in annual trade passes through the South China Sea each year — half of the world’s merchant fleet tonnage and a third of all global maritime traffic, according to figures cited by E-International Relations. Oil tankers moving through these waters carry 80% of China’s crude oil imports, making the route one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world.
That traffic explains why six governments — China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines and Taiwan — assert overlapping rights to the same sea, and why decades of legal attempts to sort out the claims have produced little calm, E-International Relations reported.
What the Sea Holds
The disputes center on the Spratly and Paracel Islands, two groups of small, mostly uninhabited reefs and atolls inside a 1.4 million-square-mile area that sits inside the exclusive economic zones of Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines.
Energy is one driver. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates the region holds 11 billion barrels of untapped oil and between 190 and 500 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, while China’s Ministry of Geological Resources and Mining has put the oil figure as high as 130 billion barrels. Eighty percent of China’s crude oil imports pass through the sea, which Beijing has called its “Second Persian Gulf.”
Fishing is another. The waters contain more than 3,000 indigenous and migratory fish species and account for more than 12% of worldwide fishing, and clashes between Philippine and Chinese fishing vessels have already occurred over the stocks.
Two Legal Theories, Six Claimants
The claims fall into two camps: historical rights and rights under the 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, which every coastal state in Southeast Asia has ratified.
China bases its claim on naval expeditions dating to the 15th century and on a 1947 map drawn by the then-ruling Kuomintang that enclosed the islands in a nine-dash line; after 1949 the People’s Republic kept the map in official correspondence. Vietnam asserts it has dominated both island groups since the 17th century and, in 2012, adopted a maritime law claiming jurisdiction over the Paracels and Spratlys while requiring foreign naval ships to register with Vietnamese authorities. Malaysia entered the dispute in 1979 with an official map placing the Spratlys on its continental shelf. Brunei, after independence in 1984, declared a 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone that overlaps the nine-dash line.
Submissions to the U.N. and an Arbitration That Changed Little
Claimants have tried to use U.N. mechanisms to lock in their positions. In 2009, Vietnam and Malaysia jointly submitted their continental shelf claims to the U.N. Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, and China responded the same year by submitting its nine-dash line map. Malaysia filed a further partial submission in 2019 for the northern part of the sea, a shift away from its earlier quiet diplomacy toward Beijing. The Philippines brought China before the Permanent Court of Arbitration under UNCLOS procedures, but the effort has yielded little to no reduction in tensions, E-International Relations reported.
Fisheries Already Running Down
The pressure on fish stocks is measurable. By 2008, an estimated 25% of the region’s fisheries were already over-exploited and 50% fully exploited, with no sustainable fishing practices in place, according to the assessment cited by E-International Relations.
Questions Readers Ask
What is the nine-dash line?
China has kept the map in official use since 1949 and submitted it to the U.N. continental shelf commission in 2009.
Which countries claim the Spratly Islands?
China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines and Taiwan all assert claims to at least part of the Spratlys. Vietnam has occupied several islands since the 1970s, and Malaysia placed the archipelago on its continental shelf in a 1979 map.
Has UNCLOS settled the disputes?
No. Claimants have used the convention’s mechanisms — including joint submissions to the U.N. Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf and the Philippines’ arbitration case against China at the Permanent Court of Arbitration — but E-International Relations reports that little to no success has been achieved in decreasing the conflict.
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