/file/attachments/3000/peterFab-US-SA-election-impact-main_472220.jpg "US Democratic sweep offers chance to reverse AGOA exclusion")
ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula said he was “over the moon” and “elated” by the Democratic Party’s sweep of both chambers of the US Congress, calling President Donald Trump “very nasty” toward South Africa, Mail & Guardian reported. Democrats won control of the Senate and the House in Tuesday’s midterm elections, delivering what analysts called a major rebuke of Trump, who had urged voters to treat the contest as a referendum on himself.
As of Thursday morning, 5 November, Democrats held 54 of the 100 Senate seats and at least 245 of the 435 House seats as counting continued, Daily Maverick reported. The result leaves Trump a lame duck for his final two years and creates an opportunity for South Africa to seek reversal of the administration’s decision this week to exclude the country from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), effective 1 January 2027.
Ramaphosa and South African officials see an opening
President Cyril Ramaphosa said the Democratic landslide “is going to introduce a new era in world relations,” adding that South Africa is “always willing to have good relations with the US,” Daily Maverick reported. John Steenhuisen, the DA MP and deputy minister of trade, industry and competition, called the result a “complete and utter repudiation of Trump and his Maga movement, the biggest Republican defeat since Watergate,” and said South Africa would likely get “a more sympathetic hearing” from Democrats now chairing the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House Ways and Means Committee.
Bob Wekesa, director of the African Centre for the Study of the US at Wits University, agreed the Democratic “blue wave” was “great news” for South Africa and said skilful diplomacy could give Pretoria “at least a credible chance” of getting the Agoa removal rescinded. The legislation requires the administration to give 60 days’ notice, leaving South Africa until early January to try to reverse the decision, Daily Maverick reported.
Exporters Western Cape chair Terry Gale told Moneyweb the election “changed the political landscape in Washington” and urged an “urgent diplomatic effort,” including deploying a senior diplomatic and trade mission to Washington before the new congressional majorities take office. Political analyst Professor Richard Calland told EWN the result could help improve soured relations between Pretoria and Washington, suggesting Trump might now have less time to focus on disagreements with South Africa.
Democrats move to condemn the Agoa decision
In a joint statement on 4 November, senior Democrats Gregory Meeks, ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Senator Jeanne Shaheen, his Senate counterpart, condemned the removal decision, saying the Trump administration had prioritised “political spectacle and disputed narratives” over US strategic interests and warning that exclusion risked handing China a strategic advantage, Daily Maverick reported. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has said overturning Trump’s tariffs would be a top priority in the Democrats’ first 100 days, according to The Africa Report.
Caution that the president still holds the power
Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, national director of the SA Institute of International Affairs, cautioned that although Agoa is a law passed by Congress, eligibility decisions rest with the president, making a successful appeal unlikely. Joshua Meservey, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, agreed: “Congress established Agoa, but it gives the president authority for determining eligibility.”
Meservey also noted that US concern about South Africa’s non-alignment is bipartisan, pointing to Democratic Senator Chris Coons’ 2023 proposal to review South Africa’s Agoa eligibility over its failure to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; Coons is tipped to chair the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Wekesa added that even Democrats view China as an “existential threat.”
Trade stakes for South Africa
Agoa gives eligible African countries duty-free access to the US market for more than 1,800 products, Moneyweb noted. Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition Parks Tau said Agoa “remains important” but “does not constitute the totality” of the economic relationship: about 10% of South African exports to the US entered under Agoa in 2025, down from 28% in 2024, worth roughly $1.7-billion compared with $4-billion the year before, or about 1% of South Africa’s total global exports, Daily Maverick reported. Steenhuisen argued South Africa should stop fixating on Agoa and negotiate a conventional reciprocal free-trade agreement instead, saying the uncertainty is “unhelpful” for agriculture and manufacturing planning.
What happens next
The exclusion takes effect on 1 January 2027, and the 60-day notice window runs to early January, leaving a narrow diplomatic window. A Democratic Congress is also expected to pursue a long-term renewal of Agoa, which expires in December 2028 and enjoys some Republican support as well. Some analysts, including an unnamed Washington-based Africa expert cited by Daily Maverick, said Congress could regain control over tariffs, potentially reducing trade barriers on South Africa and facilitating a broader review of US-South Africa relations. Steenhuisen said Trump’s aid cuts, including to the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, were “back on the table,” and that it would be harder for countries to be “bullied” with Congress outside Trump’s control.
Mbalula acknowledged the Agoa decision would hurt South African businesses trading with the US but said the government had travelled to the White House to contest claims of a genocide against white South Africans and that Trump “refused to listen.”
Questions readers are asking
When does South Africa lose Agoa benefits?
The Office of the US Trade Representative announced the intention to terminate South Africa and Rwanda’s eligibility effective 1 January 2027, Mail & Guardian reported, and the law requires 60 days’ notice, giving Pretoria until early January to seek a reversal.
How much trade is actually at stake?
Agoa-covered exports to the US were valued at about $1.7-billion in 2025, down from $4-billion in 2024, representing roughly 10% of South Africa’s US-bound exports and about 1% of its total global exports, Daily Maverick reported.
Can Congress override the president on Agoa?
Analysts including Elizabeth Sidiropoulos and Joshua Meservey say no: Congress created Agoa but delegated eligibility decisions to the president, so Trump retains final say even with Democrats controlling both chambers.
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