Sixty percent of the extra demand for housing in the Netherlands between 2015 and 2024 was tied to migration, according to figures released by the Economisch Instituut voor de Bouw (EIB), as researchers and analysts point to a sharp impact on the Dutch housing market. The report itself originated from a motion in 2018 by Klaas Dijkhoff, then parliamentary leader of the VVD, which was also co-signed by the CDA, D66, ChristenUnie, and SGP. The EIB concluded that asylum migration forms the most important category of migrants from the perspective of structural demand on the Dutch housing market, noting that while the numbers of labor migrants are higher, the majority of working labor migrants eventually leave again, whereas asylum migrants hardly ever leave and thus persistently drive extra demand for housing, particularly for social rental homes. Recent analysis in Het Financieele Dagblad showed that an average newly built home in 2019 still counted 121 square meters compared to 98 square meters now, while the price has remained the same.
Out of the migrants who arrived in the Netherlands between 2015 and 2024, approximately 1.4 million still resided in the country by 2024. According to research from the EIB, as cited by Zwagerman, this group occupies about 435,000 homes, while the coming decade is expected to see an additional housing demand from migration of 340,000 units.
De druk van statushouders op sociale huur blijkt veel groter dan eerder gedacht. Electoraal geograaf @Jossedevoogd windt zich enorm op over de 'bewuste' misinterpretatie van de cijfers door politici. "Het is naïviteit. Het is bijna desinformatie vanuit het systeem, ze hebben geen… pic.twitter.com/862zFxYefF”
The Debate Over Social Housing and Percentages
Political discussions have frequently centered on the share of social housing allocated to status holders. While general figures often point to 7 percent of housing allocations, experts argue this metric creates a distorted picture because it includes current social tenants moving within the sector. According to electoral geographer Josse de Voogd, cited on WNL, the actual percentage of social housing going to status holders lies between 20 and 33 percent when examining the true impact on starters and other applicants. De Voogd criticized the presentation of statistics, calling it almost disinformation from the system
. VVD MP Jurgen Nobel similarly stated that the 7 percent figure does not give an honest picture. De Voogd also noted that behind the scenes, more politicians are well aware of these figures.
Dr. Jan van de Beek noted that because many applicants already in the system are simply flowing through, starters face extended waiting times. With a third of 45,000 starters consisting of status holders receiving priority, waiting times have grown significantly beyond previous estimates. Van de Beek explained that for every two residents, there is approximately one status holder registering and receiving priority, pushing waiting times that used to be seven years toward ten or eleven years depending on the municipality.
Cabinet Sets Target of 100,000 New Homes per Year
The cabinet has conformed to a production target of 100,000 new homes per year. However, critics point out that building more houses also requires the recruitment of labor migrants, who themselves need housing, creating a continuous cycle of demand. Even as policymakers look toward upcoming construction milestones, structural housing shortages and migration-driven demand continue to shape the national debate on housing policy.
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