2024-01-28 19:08:47
CITIC Securities: The market has entered a rebound trading window
Policies to stabilize the capital market have focused on improving market expectations in the near future. Since the beginning of the year, the cyclic chain negative feedback process of market liquidity has been effectively blocked. As performance forecast risks have gradually come to light, the market has entered a monthly rebound trading window.
First of all, the securities regulatory authorities have responded to market concerns in a timely manner. Reform measures on the investment side are expected to be accelerated. Support policies in the real estate sector have been significantly increased. Interest rate cuts are expected to continue in February. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission continues to emphasize the investor returns of listed central enterprises. The heavyweight stocks of central enterprises are the ballast stone. The role of the economy has become more prominent, policies to improve the business environment have been introduced frequently, and market confidence is expected to gradually recover. Secondly, quasi-“levelling” funds break negative feedback, the pressure of snowball knock-in and quantitative liquidation is significantly alleviated, and the process of equalizing institutional positions is accelerated. Finally, as annual report performance forecasts are implemented one after another, performance risks in the fourth quarter are fully released, and the rebound window period will still show the characteristics of trading funds. Low dividends of central enterprises and high dividend sectors are the most consensus main lines during the window period. At the same time, attention will be paid to low Layout opportunities for blue-chip companies with outstanding valuations.
Guotai Junan Securities: The “red envelope market” is emerging before the Spring Festival. Be short-term and short-term.
The intensive introduction of policies and the entry of important forces into the market have pushed the market to rebound from the bottom. The newly formed optimistic expectations and market water temperature will not drop sharply immediately. The “red envelope market” is emerging before the Spring Festival. It is expected that: 1) After the index rebounds sharply, be short-term before the holiday. The index will rise and fluctuate. Do not chase higher. The “red envelope market” will enter the sector and spread. 2) Growth expectations from a mid-term perspective lack upward revision momentum and the transaction structure needs to be cleared and the bottom needs to be consolidated.
The market for high dividends is not over yet, but the volatility will increase. Before the Spring Festival, the “red envelope market” spreads and focuses on the rebound of low valuation growth. Opportunities for blue-chip stocks lie in the high dividend/stable cash flow sector with low-risk characteristics. The market is not over yet, but the “market value management” measures of central enterprises have amplified the expected fluctuations in the sector. After some stock prices have risen sharply, divergence has increased, and volatility will increase. Three main lines: 1) Before the Spring Festival, the logic of “market value management” of central enterprises is expected to spread to the technology of central enterprises, and since the beginning of the year, the stock prices of some large-cap growth stocks have shown “defensive” characteristics: new energy/electronics/automobiles/pharmaceuticals; 2) From a mid-term perspective, reduce the portfolio Volatility is still important, low valuation + high dividend: operators/highways/state-owned banks/resources (petrochemicals/coal, etc.). 3) Low valuation + stable cash flow: gas/electricity/water/solid waste/port.
CICC: The market has the momentum to continue to recover
Recently, positive factors in the market have increased, the domestic policy environment has improved marginally, the negative feedback phenomenon on the capital side has also been gradually eased, and investors’ more cautious expectations have been restored.
Looking forward, we believe that positive changes are taking place at the policy level in the near future, short-term liquidity risks are gradually being resolved, and the index has certain recovery momentum. The overall performance of growth industries and small and medium-cap styles currently heavily held by institutions is weak, reflecting that investors’ risk appetite is still To be fixed. Combined with the cautious expectations implied by the current low valuation and the positive changes in policy factors, there is no need to be too pessimistic about subsequent market performance. In terms of allocation, in the short term, we will focus on benefit areas in conjunction with policy changes, and focus on the combination of offensive and defensive recovery and dividend assets.
Huatai Securities: Annual report performance forecast intensive disclosure window, short-term allocation is still mainly stable
In the past week, the market has shown initial signs of stabilization, driven by the bottom-line policy thinking driven by the entry of incremental funds, with better directional flexibility in the chip structure prevailing. As the annual report preview intensive disclosure period approaches, we have calculated the disclosure situation as of January 27, 2024: ① The overall disclosure rate of full A is low (19%), mass entrepreneurship and innovation (GEM, Science and Technology Innovation Board) have fallen back more, and the disclosure rate of central state-owned enterprises is 2010 For the first time this year, it surpassed private enterprises, and the median net profit growth rate for all A-level forecasts increased, with the highest on the main board; ② The forecast rate and the median net profit growth rate for “difficulty reversal” industries such as optional consumption and public industries were relatively high, and resources & Materials and TMT are “double low”; ③ Industries with good performance forecasts and less pressure on institutional chips include light industry, commerce, textiles and clothing, beauty care, and non-banking. Except for banks, all have negative returns from the beginning of the year to 1.27. Considering marginal funds and public offering chips, a combination similar to the CSI 300/SSE 50 may be better in the short term.
Pay attention to chips and focus on stability. A configuration similar to the CSI 300 or the Shanghai Composite 50 may be dominant in the short term. The market is in a high odds range. In the short term, driven by the policy bottom line thinking, incremental funds are entering the market and are showing signs of stabilization. The incremental funds are mainly long-term funds and trading funds. Institutional chips have not yet been cleared, and structural adjustments are still in progress. This suggests that the overall public offering position in the fourth quarter of 2023 will rebound from the previous quarter and be at the high level in 2016. The position of preferred varieties is accelerating the decline, and it remains to be seen whether the market will stabilize or rebound. In terms of allocation, we still focus on stability, pay attention to institutional chips, and take into account the marginal capital attributes. Depending on the level of individual risk preferences, combinations similar to the CSI 300 or the SSE 50 may still be dominant in the short term.
Haitong Securities: The current market is likely to be at the bottom area
Since the beginning of the year, a series of proactive policies have been intensively introduced, mainly involving macro-finance, capital markets, real estate, localized debt, and regions and industries. The current market is likely to be at the bottom area, and continued policy efforts are expected to catalyze the start of the market. Structurally, we focus on big finance in stages, and focus on white horse growth in the mid-term, such as electronics and other hard technologies and medicine.
SDIC Securities: It is not advisable to chase high and high school special valuations, as style switching may occur after the Spring Festival
At present, China Special Estimates has led the rise and clearly defined the stage bottom. We maintain the bearish and bullish judgment. We believe that this round of technical rebound will recover in the short term and return to the historical long-term equilibrium bottom of the Shanghai Composite Index after the Spring Festival. It should be a high probability event (historical review: the bottom is upward 10 % left and right space). At the broad market index level, we previously proposed that given the current macro environment, CPI has been experiencing negative growth for three consecutive months, further easing by the central bank and increased fiscal policy are important signals for the subsequent market rebound. Recently, we can see the frequent emergence of various protective policies. We believe that the current policy is mainly fiscal policy, and policies in other fields have more impact on trading sentiment. To truly promote the technical rebound and move towards a reversal in the end of the bear period and the beginning of the bull period, fiscal policy must be considered in pricing. More proactive actions. At the structural level, in addition to the completion of its special mission to set up the current market leader in the special appraisal market, we can see the dual attributes of thematic investment and high dividend investment behind it.
From a trading perspective, it is not advisable to chase higher prices in the context of the rise led by China Special Appraisal., when the whole-day trading volume can maintain above 850 billion, we should do some diversion pricing to small and medium-sized stocks CSI 1000tmt; if it is below 850 billion throughout the day, we should choose low-priced blue chip stocks and high-dividend varieties in the medium and special valuations. Appropriate. At the same time, small and medium-cap stocks, represented by CSI 1000 and CSI 2000, fell sharply after the beginning of the year. At present, small and medium-sized caps are just surviving the crisis, and the dominant growth pattern of small- and medium-sized caps has not been reversed in the mid-term. For example, after June 2015, although the market experienced periodic sharp declines in small caps and dominated by large caps, the final dominance of small and medium caps continued until 2016. August. (Historical review: Style switching often occurs after the Spring Festival, and we tend to see small and medium-sized stocks regain dominance after the Spring Festival). Here, we still maintain the dominance of the dual main lines of “large-cap value and high dividend + small-cap growth TMT” that we have emphasized since the beginning of last year.
Industrial Securities: TMT will set sail again in February
“Chinese prefix” is an extension of the low-wave direction of dividends. In the future, we can pay attention to the direction in which the sector is expected to rotate and spread. For example, current transactions are not crowded and valuations are still low, including cement, insurance, operators, construction and steel.
While the “Chinese prefix” is rising, TMT is still experiencing adjustments. At present, as the two ends of the “dumbbell-shaped” configuration, the differentiation between TMT and central state-owned enterprises and dividend directions has reached a relatively high level in recent years. Therefore, if the “中 prefix” experiences a relatively sufficient diffusion and fermentation, TMT may once again usher in an upward recovery market in February. In general, with the overall recovery in market risk appetite and the end of the performance pre-disclosure window, TMT, which is catalyzed by prosperity, profit growth, and industry trends, is expected to become an important main direction in the subsequent market recovery stage. In terms of industry segments, it is recommended to pay attention to TMT’s “Five Golden Flowers”: optical modules, consumer electronics, games, optical components, and semiconductors.
GF Securities: TMT and small and medium-sized stocks may usher in rebound opportunities
With the implementation of a series of policies including currency, real estate, and capital markets last week, market sentiment has initially stabilized, relying on the support of large-cap stocks. This week is the last window period for the conditional mandatory disclosure of expected annual reports of listed companies. It may be similar to January 2019. As the boots of some annual reports that predict thunder finally fall, TMT and small and medium-sized stocks that have fallen significantly in recent months may also There will be a good rebound opportunity. Under this logic, it is recommended to look for some sub-sectors that have experienced a large decline in the early stage (in the last 2-3 years, or in the last quarter) and may have further changes in the future, such as hydrogen energy, AI, satellites, etc.
Shen Wanhongyuan: The bottom still needs to be consolidated
The most prominent problem in the current market: The price/performance ratio has been cleared, but the chip structure has not. It is precisely because of the objective existence of chip pressure that it is still necessary for management to continue to catalyze the stabilization of capital market policies. The basis for the dominance of high-dividend style: Short-term policies that exceed expectations are still imaginative for the follow-up of monetary easing + intensive catalysis by medium- and special estimates. The short-term marginal funds are the absolute return of adding positions + the increase in fund activity of preferred themes. Under this style, the problem of chip structure is relatively slow to be solved, and the bottom area of the market still needs to be consolidated. The advantage of short-term high dividends relative to growth is further expanded, and the money-making effect of relative returns may be limited at a certain stage in the future. This means that chip structure issues are being resolved relatively slowly. If the subsequent interpretation of the high dividend market comes to an end in the future, and the market looks forward to the moment of growth relay, the market’s money-making effect may be unsustainable, and it will still take a process to consolidate the market bottom. In the mid-term, the overall pattern of fundamentals in 2024 is “the demand side is inelastic and the supply side is under pressure.” The upward trend of fundamental trends will remain relatively scarce before the third quarter of 2024. The current rebound after the chip structure is cleared is still in the oversold rebound range.
Technology growth is an oversold direction, but realizing the potential high odds requires an improvement in the chip structure. High short-term dividends are still a direction with relatively little resistance.We continue to emphasize that what really benefits from the decline in risk-free interest rates in the medium term is stable high dividends (stable dividend expectations are not easily affected by cyclical fluctuations in fundamentals. Typical industries include electricity, coal, railways and highways, and operators; there may be neglected occurrences in consumer goods. Steady high dividends, textiles and apparel, food processing, beverages and dairy products) and dynamic high dividends (dividend rates from low to high, stable dividend expectations from scratch, the focus of subsequent target mining is midstream manufacturing). In the subsequent oversold rebound, the recommended direction of technology growth remains unchanged: AI applications (Huawei Ascend, AIPC industry chain), semiconductors (TSMC’s performance supports the inflection point of the consumer electronics boom, and domestic semiconductor manufacturing processes will eventually benefit), Huawei operating systems, Robots, national defense industry (aviation main engine factory).
Huaan Securities: The market will continue to show a volatile trend
Looking forward to February, we believe that the market will still face many tests. Before investors’ key confidence is significantly reversed or improved, the time and space for the market rebound will face greater uncertainty. Therefore, we generally tend to believe that the market will still It continues to show a volatile trend, waiting for verification of improvement in fundamentals or confirmation of increased macro-policy intensity.
The key that most affects the thinking and direction of allocation is the sustainability of this round of market rebound. If the rebound continues, you should look for varieties with high elasticity. If the time and space for rebound are limited, you should still pay attention to stable or deterministic assets. We believe that when the core concerns of the market have not been resolved and the market is facing many tests in February, allocation ideas cannot be too radical or pursue flexibility. There is still very important allocation value and necessity for stable assets or deterministic theme directions. It is recommended to focus on the following three directions: The first allocation direction is the infrastructure construction-related fields that have catalysts and strong cyclical regularity. They are highly certain and are expected to become the dazzling main direction in February and March. The second allocation direction is to continue high-dividend and stable assets, continue to switch banks, and cars and parts with good short- and medium-term investment value. The third configuration direction is the travel chain, which is more certain before the holiday. After the holiday, it is necessary to pay attention to the consumption data during the holiday.
(Source of article: Brokerage China)
Source of article: Brokerage China
Original title:[One-week strategies of the top ten brokers]The “red envelope market” is emerging before the Spring Festival, be short-term or short-term!Follow these sections
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