Two small-market franchises dominated the World Series narrative by leaning into contact hitting, base running speed, and old-school pitching, according to an analysis published by Baseball Prospectus. While the championship matchup highlighted these tactical elements, a deeper statistical review across recent Major League Baseball seasons shows that this style of play maintains only a weak overall correlation with winning games.
Evaluating the Non-Home Run Baseball Index
To measure teams outside of traditional power hitting, Baseball Prospectus constructed a small-ball index using eight distinct metrics from the 2022 through 2026 seasons. The model evaluates high contact percentages, low chase rates, low reliance on home runs, stolen bases, bunts, extra bases taken, defensive efficiency, and productive outs.
Each metric is calculated using z-scores representing standard deviations from the league mean. For instance, the Tampa Bay Rays recorded a defensive efficiency rating of 0.723 in the studied period, placing them 1.82 standard deviations above the league average. Combining these defensive metrics with contact and aggressive base running forms the foundation of the index.
Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers Lead the Index
The Tampa Bay Rays topped the small-ball index with a score of 11.66, leading all Major League Baseball teams in contact rate, bunts, and defensive efficiency. The Milwaukee Brewers followed closely with a score of 9.40, driven by plate discipline and low home run dependency.
Despite reaching the World Series through these methods, historical correlation data reveals that playing small ball does not guarantee success. The correlation between the small-ball index and winning percentage sits at 0.31 since the universal designated hitter rule took effect, pointing to a weak overall relationship.
| Team | Small-Ball Index Score |
|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 11.66 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 9.40 |
| Kansas City Royals | 6.09 |
| San Diego Padres | 5.05 |
Analytics and Modern Roster Construction
Attributing small-ball success to a rejection of modern analytics misrepresents how front offices operate. Both the Rays and Brewers integrate advanced analytics heavily into player acquisition, development, and in-game strategy. High rankings in organizational management assessments reflect deep analytical operations rather than a simple return to traditional tactics.
Annual correlation figures fluctuate significantly, registering 0.04 in 2022, 0.22 in 2023, 0.38 in 2024, 0.42 in 2025, and 0.53 in 2026. These yearly shifts demonstrate that while certain teams execute small-ball tactics effectively, power hitting and overall roster talent remain primary drivers of sustained success across the league.
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