Trump’s Iran Policy Unravels Amidst Rising Costs and Internal Dissent

By Bruce Wolpe, Senior Fellow at the US Studies Centre

March 15, 2026

President Donald Trump’s assertive foreign policy, particularly his approach to Iran, is facing increasing scrutiny as the conflict escalates and its consequences commence to unravel his presidency. What began as a campaign against Iran’s nuclear ambitions has broadened into a multifaceted operation targeting ballistic missiles, naval forces, regional proxies, and regime change. However, the war is proving more challenging and costly than initially projected, sparking economic concerns and internal divisions within the administration.

The Stakes of the Conflict

The current conflict with Iran is not simply about nuclear proliferation. As Axios’s Barak Ravid succinctly put it, “Victory for Iran will be if they’re still standing after Israel and the US finish their operation.” For the US and Israel, a successful outcome requires either the collapse of the Iranian regime or the installation of a leadership amenable to US interests.

Despite President Trump’s repeated claims of victory – stating at a recent rally in Kentucky, “OPERATION EPIC FURY!!!…we’ve won” – the reality on the ground suggests a more complex situation. Trump has demanded “unconditional surrender” and asserted his intention to personally select Iran’s next leader, drawing parallels to his involvement in Venezuela.

Economic and Political Fallout

The war’s impact extends beyond the immediate conflict zone. Rising oil prices, disruptions to shipping lanes – particularly in the Straits – and growing concerns about stagflation are beginning to grip Wall Street. These economic pressures could significantly influence the upcoming midterm elections.

cracks are appearing within the White House. Vice President JD Vance, previously a vocal critic of “forever wars,” has remained conspicuously silent on the Iran conflict. President Trump acknowledged a philosophical difference with Vance, stating he is “maybe less enthusiastic about going” into Iran, and that Vance “just opposes” the war.

Seeking an Off-Ramp

President Trump’s upcoming summit with President Xi of China on March 31 may present a crucial opportunity to de-escalate the situation. Facing Xi with an ongoing, unresolved conflict in Iran could be strategically disadvantageous for Trump.

A Policy Shift in Perspective

Bruce Wolpe, a Senior Fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre, has closely followed these developments. Wolpe previously served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard. His recent work, including his book “Trump’s Australia,” examines the implications of a potential Trump return to power for Australia. Wolpe has also contributed commentary on the evolving situation in Iran, including articles on Stephen Miller’s influence and the dynamics between Trump and Venezuela.

The unfolding events in Iran underscore the complexities of modern warfare and the potential for unintended consequences. As the conflict continues, President Trump faces mounting pressure to define a clear path to resolution and address the growing economic and political challenges at home.