A widely cited claim that artificial intelligence would boost the national economy by 4 千億英鎊 has drawn criticism. Kanishka Narayan, the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for AI, admitted in Parliament last week that the figure originated from a report commissioned by Google, noting that internal government estimates suggest the actual impact is less than 33% of that total.
As reported by WIRED, the government had relied on the higher estimate for nearly two years. Narayan clarified that current government modeling projects AI and data investment will contribute between 550億至1,400億英鎊 to the UK economy by 2030. He cited a median estimate of 1,200億英鎊, though he characterized this assessment as “extremely uncertain.”
Origins of the Disputed AI Forecast
The 4 千億英鎊 figure was taken from a 2023 report produced by the consultancy Public First—now known as PF Global—on behalf of Google. Despite the existence of more conservative internal data, government departments continued to cite the higher number throughout two successive administrations.
Jonathan Dupont, an economic director at PF Global, stated that the discrepancy between the initial projection and current government estimates is largely due to the actual pace of AI adoption being slower than the 2023 model had anticipated. The firm maintains that its research was conducted independently.
Ministers Delayed Releasing Lower Figures
The revelation has drawn criticism regarding how government agencies manage data transparency. Chi Onwurah, chair of the House of Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee, argued that “hype” serves as a primary barrier to successful digital transformation in the public sector.
Ministers had been aware of the lower estimates as early as November 2025. Despite this, the government agency Skills England continued to reference the 4 千億英鎊 figure four months later. Lord Holmes of Richmond, a Conservative peer who unsuccessfully sought the source of the original figure in January 2025, stated that the government should have clarified the discrepancy much sooner.
UK AI Minister Kanishka Narayan puts AI's UK economic gain at £55B–£140B by 2030 — vs the £400B Google-led estimate officials were touting. The hype gap is real. So is the gain. Source: Wired via Techmeme https://t.co/Z4jMcbOwzV
Economic Projection Discrepancies
| Estimate Source | Projected 2030 Economic Impact |
| :— | :— |
| Initial Public First/Google Report | 4 千億英鎊 |
| UK Government Median Estimate | 1,200億英鎊 |
| UK Government Low-End Estimate | 550億英鎊 |
The Ada Lovelace Institute, a UK research body, warned that seemingly precise economic figures often rely on hidden assumptions and institutional incentives. The organization urged the government to rigorously vet the origins and beneficiaries of such data before using it to shape national policy.