US Secret Talks in Tokyo and Naypyidaw
The visit followed secret talks held between US officials and the Myanmar government in Tokyo in June. While the ostensible aim of the September delegation was securing the release of detained American businessman Adam Castillo, the diplomatic opening served a broader strategic purpose that the Trump administration had weighed for months.
Rare Earth Reserves and Supply Chain Control
Castillo previously pitched the US administration on potential access to Myanmar’s vast rare earth reserves. These minerals are critical for manufacturing electric vehicles, solar panels, jet engines, and guided missiles. However, Myanmar’s military does not control the territory where the rare earth deposits are located, and China maintains strict control over the production supply chains. Beijing has backed Min Aung Hlaing’s government by supporting military-backed elections and pressuring ethnic armed groups along the northern border into ceasefire negotiations. Chinese influence decisively shifted the balance of power in favor of the military after resistance forces inflicted significant battlefield losses in late 2023.
Beijing Responds with Political Delegations
In response to recent US diplomatic overtures, a Chinese delegation traveled to Myanmar in October. Peng Xiubin, director-general of the Chinese Communist Party’s International Liaison Department, met with nine political parties. The participants included the Union Solidarity and Development Party, which acts as the military’s proxy, alongside eight other parties authorized by the junta to contest the upcoming 2025 election. Discussions centered on assessing public perception of China and reinforcing bilateral ties.
ASEAN Diplomatic Consensus Faces Setbacks
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations maintains that its Five-Point Consensus remains the preferred framework for resolving the crisis and reintegrating Naypyidaw into regional diplomacy. Agreed upon during a 2021 special summit, the plan demands an end to violence, inclusive dialogue, mediation by a special envoy, humanitarian aid, and a visit by the envoy to meet all involved factions. Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Teresa Lazaro, who serves as the current special envoy for Myanmar, stated that Myanmar’s return to full participation in ASEAN meetings remains far off. Washington downgraded its diplomatic representation following the 2022 departure of Ambassador Thomas Vajda after the 2021 military coup ended a decade of democratic reforms, but the recent US and Chinese visits signal a renewed return of great power competition in the country.
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