A Growing Public Hunger for Predictability
As the war in Ukraine grinds into its fifth year, the Russian public is increasingly prioritizing stability over national ambition. Data from the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM), reported by Knowledge, reveals that nearly one-third of Russians (30%) now place peace and security at the top of their personal aspirations.
This cooling of public fervor stands in sharp contrast to the Kremlin’s fiscal trajectory. The Russian state is preparing for a long-term conflict, with plans to allocate 17.147 trillion rubles to the military in 2027. This budget hike surpasses even Soviet-era defense spending.
The Economics of Personal Ambition
Beyond the 30% seeking stability, the national mood remains fragmented. One in five Russians (20%) remains focused on material advancement, prioritizing home ownership, travel, and secure pensions. A smaller cohort, 8%, centers their hopes on family well-being, while only 2% express dreams of national prosperity.
“People haven’t stopped dreaming and haven’t given up on big goals, but stability itself is becoming a value,” said Andrei Shirokikh, general director of the research firm Marketinglab. Stepan Lvov, chairman of the VTsIOM scientific council, agrees, noting that these figures highlight a collective search for predictability. Yet, the sense of agency is low: 45% of Russians believe their personal goals are beyond their control, tethered instead to external circumstances.
Conditional Support for Peace
While the desire for peace is evident, it comes with strict parameters. A Levada Center survey conducted between September 23 and 30 found that 64% of Russians support starting peace negotiations—a 5% rise from the previous month.
The Long Shadow of 2027
State planning suggests a grim, protracted horizon. Sources cited by The New York Times indicate President Putin is prepared to sustain the conflict until the autumn of 2027, eyeing that period as a window for potential negotiations. Meanwhile, the State Duma has signaled that the “special military operation” could extend until 2030, a move framed as necessary to prepare for a potential confrontation with NATO.
To sustain this, the 2027 military budget has been increased, with 35% of total expenditures allocated for the army and weaponry procurement.
Demographic Divides and Lingering Questions
Support for ending the conflict is not uniform. The Levada Center reports that younger people are the most vocal proponents of talks, with 77% of those under 25 favoring negotiations. Among women, 70% favor moving toward peace talks. The share of Russians supporting an end to the war through territorial concessions has grown by 7% over the last year and a half, with opposition to such an outcome reaching its lowest point since February 2025.
A disconnect remains between the Kremlin’s rhetoric and the public mood. While authorities continue to project a narrative of imminent victory, citizens are increasingly tethered to the reality of their own lives. Whether the state can reconcile its 2030 strategic outlook with a population increasingly weary of the cost of that vision remains an open question.
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