the longest regular season in WNBA history could be followed by the longest WNBA Finals. For the first time, the series is a best-of-seven, and the teams that have played the best so far in the postseason have advanced for a high-powered matchup between the No. 2 seed Las Vegas Aces and the No. 4 Phoenix Mercury.

The aces will host Game 1 on Friday (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). As the higher seed, Las Vegas will also host Game 2 and, if necessary, Games 5 and 7.

The Mercury are the first team in WNBA history to reach the Finals twice in a five-year span without a single carryover player. Their rebuild this season brought in Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally and DeWanna Bonner, among others.

The aces, meanwhile, have five players who have been with Las Vegas since at least 2022, including No. 1 picks A’ja Wilson (2018) and jackie Young (2019). The Aces revamped around their core, which includes Chelsea Gray, but they have more experience playing together than the Mercury.

Will that matter at this point in the season? Although much of the focus in the playoffs thus far has been on officiating, injuries and general player discontent as the collective bargaining agreement deadline looms at the end of this month, the actual basketball has been scintillating at times. Here is how ESPN’s experts see the WNBA Finals playing out.

Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas look to lead Phoenix to its first WNBA title since 2014. A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young seek Las Vegas’ third title in four seasons. ESPN Illustration

ESPN BET odds: -135

Projected starters (playoff stats): G Chelsea Gray (10.9 PPG, 7.3 APG,2.3 SPG),G Jackie young (20.5 PPG, 5.3 APG, 4.8 RPG), F Kierstan Bell (2.4 PPG), F NaLyssa Smith (8.9 PPG,4.6 RPG), C A’ja Wilson (26.0 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.8 BPG,2.6 SPG)

Insider intel: In some ways, the Aces’ biggest opponent in the Finals remains themselves.Wilson lamented after Game 5 of the semifinals that their losses to the Fever were especially frustrating “as it felt like the losses were self-inflicted. It felt like w

A’ja Wilson Drops 35, Leads Aces to Finals in OT

A’ja Wilson’s 35 points lead the Las Vegas Aces to an overtime victory against the Indiana fever in Game 5 of the WNBA semifinals.

If they lose, it will be because… They don’t get enough scoring from players besides Wilson and Young.

Before this year’s Aces, onyl one team in league history with at least eight playoff games had seen more than half of its scoring come from only two players: the 2008 San Antonio Silver Stars, with Becky Hammon and Sophia Young-Malcolm combining for 50% of their postseason points. Heading into this series, 53% of las Vegas’ playoff scoring has come from Wilson and Young, who were the first teammates ever to each score 30 points in the same playoff game during Game 5 of the semifinals.

Having mentioned that, we did see the Aces’ other scoring threats in overtime of Tuesday’s win. After Wilson and young combined for 61 of their 86 points in regulation, they had none of Las Vegas’ first 15 in OT. Gray, a proven playoff shotmaker, and Loyd, a two-time WNBA champion, stepped up to lead the Aces to the finals, combining for 13 of the team’s 21 overtime points. They will need to continue that production against Phoenix.

Player ready for the Finals spotlight: Smith and Evans might be X factors. Evans was part of Chicago’s 2021 championship team as a rookie, although she didn’t play a lot. She is in a bigger role now at age 27 and with four seasons of WNBA experience.

Satou Sabally calls Mercury’s finals trip ‘a dream come true’

Satou Sabally reflects on reaching the WNBA Finals after the Mercury defeated the Lynx.

Insider intel: The Mercury faced the defending champion New York Liberty in the first round and the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx in the semifinals.Phoenix embraced the underdog role from the start of the playoffs.

“No one has had expectations for us except ourselves,” coach Nate Tibbetts said after Phoenix clinched its spot in the finals. “The pride and the togetherness for such a new group, it’s pretty impressive.”

Entering the season, the Mercury returned just two players from their 2024 roster, and there were questions about how Phoenix’s depth outside of its big three would perform. Then, injuries hit. Copper missed the first 11 games of the season as she recovered from knee surgery. Thomas (left calf) missed five games between May and june, and Sabally (right ankle) was out for two weeks in July.

With about a month left in the regular season, Sabally told ESPN she thought her team — which was finally healthy — was playing at about 80% of its capability. And now?

“I think we are [playing] at 99%,” said Sabally, whose Mercury became the fourth team in WNBA history to eliminate both teams that participated in the previous year’s Finals within a single postseason. “Winning it, proving it, then I’ll say we’re at 100%.” — Kendra Andrews

Why they can win the WNBA title: The Mercury have had the far more impressive playoff run thus far. Granted they benefited from injuries to opposing stars Breanna Stewart (badly limited in Game 2 of the first round) and Napheesa collier (missed the series-deciding Game 4),the Mercury have taken care of buisness against two far stronger opponents than either team the Aces have faced.

Las Vegas is the first team in the current WNBA playoff format, adopted in 2022, not to face a top-four seed en route to the Finals. Yet the Aces still went the distance in both rounds, needing a missed shot at the buzzer from the Storm and overtime against the shorthanded Fever to get here. There is no question Phoenix comes in hotter. — Pelton

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Aces and Mercury Advance to WNBA Finals

Las Vegas Aces: The Aces are heading back to the WNBA Finals after defeating the Minnesota Lynx 91-83 in Game 4 of their semifinal series. A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young combined for 67 points, leading the charge for Las Vegas. The Aces’ defense also excelled, holding Phoenix to its lowest point total of the season (61). — Creme

Player ready for the Finals spotlight: This time a year ago, Sami Whitcomb played just four total minutes in the Storm’s first-round sweep by the Aces. Coming off a year in which she shot a career-low 29% on 3s at age 36,it looked like she had maybe reached the end of the line when she arrived in Phoenix. Rather, whitcomb has once again emerged as one of the WNBA’s most dangerous shooters, hitting a team-high 86 3-pointers — including the shot that forced overtime in the Game 2 win at Minnesota.

Whitcomb missed the 2020 finals to quarantine in Australia ahead of the birth of her first son, but in 2018, she actually finished multiple games on the court instead of All-Star Loyd as Seattle won that year’s title. Whitcomb had six points in the fourth quarter of Game 3 as the Storm finished off a sweep of the mystics.— Pelton