Lake Chad Basin Faces Escalating Food Insecurity and Malnutrition in 2026

The Lake Chad Basin and Central Sahel regions are bracing for a significant increase in acute food insecurity and malnutrition in 2026, with projections indicating 53 million people will experience critical levels of need during the lean season. The crisis, driven by a complex interplay of factors including conflict, climate change, and economic hardship, is expected to worsen, impacting countries across the region and extending towards coastal West Africa.

Projected Severity of the Crisis

According to recent projections, a substantial portion of the population will require urgent assistance. Key findings include:

• Acute Food Insecurity: An estimated 53 million people are projected to experience acute food and nutritional insecurity (Phase 3 or worse) during the 2026 lean season.
• Rising Malnutrition: Worsening acute malnutrition rates are anticipated, particularly in Niger, Chad, Mauritania, and northeastern Nigeria between May and October 2026.
• Emergency Levels: Seven zones are planned to be classified in Phase 4 (emergency), primarily located in Nigeria, and Mali.
• High Proportions in Crisis: Chad (16.5%) and Nigeria (15.9%) are expected to have the highest proportions of their populations facing at least a Phase 3 (crisis) level of food insecurity or worse.
• Expanding Crisis Zones: The persistent epicenters of the crisis – the Lake Chad Basin and Central Sahel – are showing signs of extending towards coastal countries, including Ghana, Mauritania, Senegal, and Sierra Leone.

Underlying Drivers of Instability

The Lake Chad Basin, encompassing parts of Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon, is particularly vulnerable. Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) operate across these countries, disrupting agricultural activities and livelihoods through economic shakedowns and violence [1]. These groups impose taxes on trade, farming, and fishing, creating a parallel governance structure fueled by revenue from a collapsing economy.

Regional cooperation has been hampered by accusations of non-cooperation and sabotage in the fight against jihadist groups [3].

Cross-border challenges and disputes, particularly around Lake Chad, exacerbate the situation. Receding water levels have exposed contested islands, leading to tensions [1].

Military Cooperation and Regional Security

Despite challenges, military cooperation between Nigeria and neighboring countries, like Niger, is ongoing. In April 2025, the Nigerian and Nigerien air forces conducted joint precision strikes against suspected terrorist camps along their shared border [2]. Although, the Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF), designed to enhance regional security, has faced internal divisions and coordination issues [1]. Chad’s potential withdrawal from the MNJTF would significantly weaken the force, as its military is considered one of the most capable in the region.

Historical Context of Chad-Nigeria Relations

Nigeria’s influence in Chad grew after a 1975 coup. Nigeria mediated Chadian conflicts in 1979, supporting a compromise leader, though this support too fueled opposition [1]. Both nations have cooperated politically, including sharing seats on the UN Security Council. However, economic interactions have been disrupted by cross-border clashes and, in the past, by the expulsion of Chadian workers from Nigeria during periods of economic austerity [1].

Looking Ahead

Addressing the escalating food insecurity and malnutrition crisis in the Lake Chad Basin and Central Sahel requires a multifaceted approach. Strengthening regional cooperation, improving border security, investing in infrastructure, and rebuilding local economies are crucial steps. Without concerted efforts, the humanitarian situation is likely to deteriorate further, with potentially devastating consequences for millions of people.