2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament: Bracket Breakdown, Upsets & Key Teams

As March Madness 2026 approaches, the state of Texas boasts a strong presence with seven teams securing bids to the NCAA Tournament bracket. Highlighted by No. 2 seed Houston, and No. 5 seed Texas Tech, the Lone Star State aims for a deep tournament run. However, four of the seven Texas programs are double-digit seeds, placing greater pressure on the Cougars and Red Raiders to represent the state well.

Key Contenders and Upset Potential

North Carolina leads all states with five teams in the tournament, but Texas’ seven bids demonstrate the growing strength of college basketball within the state. A total of 31 states, plus Washington, D.C., are represented, fueling nationwide excitement for March Madness pools and bracket predictions.

SportsLine’s Predictive Model

To navigate the unpredictable nature of the tournament, many turn to predictive models. SportsLine’s computer model has a strong track record, having correctly predicted numerous upsets in recent years. In 2024, the model accurately predicted UConn’s championship run. It has beaten over 91% of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past seven tournaments and correctly identified 25 first-round upsets since 2016.

The model simulates each game 10,000 times and entered conference tournament week on a 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks.

Projected Upsets in the South Region

SportsLine’s model identifies several potential upsets in the South Region:

• No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 8 Clemson: The model favors Iowa, citing their strong defensive performance (allowing just 66 points per game) and Bennett Stirtz, the Big Ten’s No. 5 scorer (20 ppg). Iowa’s ability to limit opponents’ second-chance points is also seen as a key advantage against a Clemson team that lacks a consistent scoring threat and has struggled recently, posting a 4-6 record in their last ten games. Historically, No. 9 seeds have a 64.3% win rate against No. 8 seeds over the last eight years.
• No. 10 Texas A&M vs. No. 7 Saint Mary’s: Texas A&M’s veteran-laden roster, with seven of their top eight scorers being seniors, and their depth (averaging 35.6 bench points per game – the most among power conference teams over the last decade) are expected to challenge Saint Mary’s. The model notes Saint Mary’s struggles with scoring (78.2 ppg) and shooting (46.1 FG%), and their limited success in Quad 1 games (1-4 record).

Making Your 2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions

With the model’s proven ability to identify bracket-busting upsets, it’s a valuable resource for anyone filling out a bracket. The model has identified a region with two potential mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a No. 14 seed, and predicts a No. 6 seed will reach the Sweet Sixteen.

For the most up-to-date bracket predictions and insights, visit SportsLine.