Scottie Scheffler enters the 2026 Open Championship as the betting favorite at 15/2 via BetMGM, though his lead over Rory McIlroy (17/2) is the narrowest margin for a major championship in years. Scheffler is defending his title after winning at Royal Portrush in 2025, but a recent missed cut at the Scottish Open has shifted oddsmakers’ confidence in his current form.
Scheffler’s Form Shift Ahead of Royal Birkdale
Scottie Scheffler has historically dominated the odds sheets for three seasons, yet his position heading into the 2026 Open is precarious. While he captured the Claret Jug at Royal Portrush last year to move closer to a career grand slam, his recent performance suggests a lack of sharpness. According to BetMGM, Scheffler is currently listed at 15/2, barely holding off Rory McIlroy’s 17/2.
The volatility in his odds stems from a poor showing at the Renaissance Club during the Scottish Open. Scheffler missed the cut, snapping a streak of 78 consecutive weekends played in PGA Tour events. This result mirrors struggles he previously mentioned during the U.S. Open last month. Despite these dips, Scheffler’s season remains statistically strong; he has recorded four runner-up finishes, nine top-10s, and 14 top-25s in 15 starts.
Comparing the Top Contenders
The gap between Scheffler and McIlroy has closed significantly. McIlroy’s odds have surged following two Masters wins over the last two years and consistent play. This trend was evident heading into the 2025 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, where the two were co-favorites.
| Golfer | BetMGM Odds | Current Status |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 15/2 | Defending Champion / Recent missed cut |
| Rory McIlroy | 17/2 | Consistent surge / Recent Masters success |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 16-1 | Top 3 contender |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 18-1 | Top 5 contender |
Analysis of the 2026 Open Betting Field
Oddsmakers are offering Scheffler his longest odds in a major since the 2022 Open Championship, where he was listed at 16-1. This shift reflects a market that no longer views him as an untouchable favorite, despite his ability to grind out strong finishes when not playing his best golf.
Beyond the top two, the field remains wide open. Jon Rahm (22-1) and a group of players including Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Åberg, and Xander Schauffele (all 28-1) represent the next tier of threats. The depth of the field is highlighted by the presence of veteran stars and rising talent, with odds stretching as far as 1500-1 for longshots like David Duval.
Projected Impact of the Scottish Open
The missed cut in Scotland is a critical data point for analysts. For much of the season, Scheffler’s slow starts were countered by a “switch” he could flip to remain competitive. The failure to find that gear at the Renaissance Club indicates a potential decline in the “sharpness” he identified as a weakness during the U.S. Open. This lack of momentum entering Royal Birkdale provides the opening for McIlroy and other contenders to challenge his hold on the top spot.