French Real Estate Market Faces Mid-Year Stagnation Amid Economic Uncertainty

The French residential real estate market experienced a lackluster first half of 2026, characterized by stagnant transaction volumes and cooling price growth, according to Charles Marinakis, president of CENTURY 21 France. While the initial months of the year maintained momentum from 2025, the second quarter saw a marked decline in activity driven by geopolitical tensions, energy supply concerns, and persistent inflationary pressures.

Why the French Property Market is Cooling

The national market, which Charles Marinakis describes as “bof” (mediocre), is currently grappling with a combination of macroeconomic headwinds. According to Marinakis, the sector has been impacted by a decline in household purchasing power and a moderate increase in interest rates, which currently hover between 3,20 % and 3,50 %.

Despite a downward trend in property prices that began in 2022, market valuations have yet to return to 2019 levels. The network, which manages 945 agencies and 7,000 employees, reports that prices remain stable or are experiencing slight downward adjustments.

The Paris Market: A Case of Extreme Correction

Paris continues to serve as the most volatile segment of the national landscape. Data from the CENTURY 21 network indicates that the capital’s market is undergoing a significant correction, with average property prices falling by approximately 100,000 euros over the past 7 years.

“Paris, c’est la ville de tous les excès,” Marinakis noted, explaining that the capital’s market exaggerates broader economic trends. He suggests that current price adjustments remain insufficient to offset the higher cost of borrowing. For the Parisian market to stabilize and regain traction, Marinakis estimates that prices would need to decline by at least 5 %, minimum.

The Resurgence of First-Time Buyers

Despite broader stagnation, the market for first-time buyers is showing signs of recovery, largely supported by access to the *Prêt à Taux Zéro* (Zero Interest Loan). This segment has emerged as the most active part of the market, contrasting sharply with second-time buyers.

The decline in activity among repeat buyers is not necessarily driven by current property prices, but by the loss of favorable credit conditions. Many existing homeowners are reluctant to sell properties financed at historically low interest rates, as moving to a new home under current market conditions would result in significantly higher monthly debt service costs. This is preventing a portion of the housing stock from entering the market, even in areas where prices do not drop, like Nice.

Market Outlook for Late 2026

Looking toward the remainder of the year, industry projections suggest a lower volume of activity compared to the current 950,000 transactions. CENTURY 21 forecasts that total transactions will likely land between 890 and 900 000 by the end of the year, reflecting a broader normalization of the sector as it adapts to a higher-rate environment.