South African Local Government Elections Face Surge in Coalition Governments
South African voters head to the polls this week in the 2026 Local Government Elections, a vote expected to cement the long-term trend of coalition governments as the African National Congress (ANC) dominance wanes. With local government ballots traditionally more volatile than national contests, the election arrives as no single party commands a national majority.
Polling data published ahead of voting day from organizations including Ipsos and the Social Research Foundation (SRF) indicates significant shifts in voter sentiment across key economic hubs. While national sentiment does not always mirror local attitudes, final pre-election numbers show tightening races in several major metros.
Polls show narrowing gap between leading political parties
National polling released by Ipsos shows that the gap between the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the ANC is narrowing, echoing trends captured in SRF data. Earlier national polls placed the gap between the two parties at six to seven percentage points, while a subsequent Ipsos poll shrank that margin to just two points.
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In Johannesburg, polls show the DA leading, but falling well short of the 51% majority required to govern alone. This fragmentation leaves the city vulnerable to the same coalition dynamics that affected its administration. A similar pattern emerges in Tshwane, where the DA holds an upper hand in polling, though Ipsos figures place the ANC and DA close together, opening the door for smaller parties like ActionSA, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), and the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) to act as key players.
The DA sits in a distant second place, while the wave of support for the MK comes at the ANC’s expense, where the party is relegated to third place, with the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and the EFF rounding out the notable contenders.
Polling organizations face forecasting challenges in municipal elections
Polling organizations have varying track records when measured against actual election outcomes. In the 2024 National Government Election, the SRF poll registered a total deviation of 7 percentage points from the final result. Ipsos recorded a 12.0 point deviation in 2024, while another poll registered a 10.6 point deviation.
Analysts note that local government elections present unique forecasting challenges compared to national votes. Turnout is harder to predict, and national momentum often fractures at the municipal level. Michael Wilkinson pointed out that the ANC’s support has historically deteriorated in local ballots compared to preceding national votes, noting that the party’s 6.4 million votes in the 2024 national election could translate into a significantly lower turnout among the adult population on election day.
National Treasury reports widespread financial distress across municipalities
Beyond the ballot box, the incoming councils will inherit a local government sector facing severe financial constraints. The National Treasury reports that 63% of all municipalities in South Africa are currently in financial distress. Over the past year, the Treasury has invoked its rarely-used Constitutional powers to delay payments to truant municipalities to enforce discipline.
These interventions have triggered friction between local structures and national authorities, with municipalities pushing for a larger share of the national revenue allocation—currently standing at 9.4% of funds available after debt-service costs and reserves. As hung councils multiply, elected councillors will face immediate pressure to balance fiscal accountability with service delivery demands.
#LGE2026 | Voters cast their special votes at Zodwa Special School in Atteridgeville as part of exercising their democratic right and participating in the 2026 Local Government Elections.#GovZAUpdates pic.twitter.com/kJPfhggtfq
Frequently Asked Questions About the 2026 Local Elections
When were the final pre-election surveys conducted?
Ipsos conducted its interviews with 3,600 randomly selected South African adults between September 12 and October 13, 2026.
How many voters did the final poll survey?
Interviews were conducted from 10 August to 14 September 2026.
#LGE2026 |. Voters cast their special votes at Balebogeng Primary School in Mamelodi as part of exercising their democratic right and participating in the 2026 Local Government Elections. #GovZAUpdates pic.twitter.com/BMTCZ7guXk
What share of national revenue do municipalities currently receive?
Municipalities receive 9.4% of available funds after accounting for debt-service costs and contingency reserves, a share that local councils have argued is insufficient to meet service delivery needs.
[IN PICTURES] ANC NEC Member, Cde Njabulo Nzuza, conducted visits to operation centres and voting stations across the Waterberg Region as part of ongoing election monitoring. The visits aimed to assess electoral readiness, engage with ANC structures and provide support towards… pic.twitter.com/BKPuFqkq7E
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