Up to 36% of Land Animal Habitats Could Face Multiple Extreme Climate Events by 2085, Study Warns

Up to 36% of land animal habitats could be exposed to repeated extreme climate events such as heatwaves, wildfires, and floods by 2085 under high-emissions scenarios, according to a study published in Nature Ecology & Evolution. The research, led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and involving Simon Fraser University researcher Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, highlights the escalating threat to biodiversity as climate change intensifies.

Key Findings of the Study

The study used climate impact modeling to project how animal habitats would fare under low- to high-emissions scenarios. Under the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting warming to below 2°C, 9% of habitats would face multiple extreme events by 2085. However, in high-emissions scenarios, this figure rises to 36%. Heatwaves were identified as the most significant threat, with 74% of land species’ habitats projected to experience them by 2050.

“When extreme events happen repeatedly or in quick succession, species have little time to adapt or recover,” Kou-Giesbrecht said. The research emphasizes that even robust conservation efforts may not suffice without aggressive climate mitigation, particularly reducing fossil fuel emissions.

Regional Impacts and Model Limitations

Species-rich regions like the Amazon basin, Africa, and Southeast Asia are expected to bear the brunt of these impacts. However, the study acknowledges that current global climate models underestimate wildfire risks in Canada due to limited simulation of boreal and high-latitude fire behavior. Kou-Giesbrecht noted that Canada-specific modeling is ongoing, but the country’s ecosystems remain vulnerable.

“Canadians are proud of their natural heritage, but protecting it requires staying within Paris Agreement targets and integrating climate impacts into conservation strategies,” she added.

Broader Implications for Biodiversity

The findings align with other research showing increased human exposure to extreme events under high-emissions scenarios. The study underscores the urgent need for climate action to prevent irreversible biodiversity loss. As Kou-Giesbrecht explained, “Limiting warming is critical—without it, conservation alone cannot offset the scale of the crisis.”

For more details, read the full study here.