Ukraine War: Russia Gains Ground, Faces High Casualties as Conflict Enters Fifth Year
As the Russo-Ukrainian war approaches its fifth year, Russian forces are making incremental territorial gains in eastern Ukraine, particularly in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, despite suffering significant casualties. While Ukraine has demonstrated resilience and benefited from recent disruptions to Russian drone capabilities, it remains outmatched in personnel and equipment, raising concerns about its ability to sustain the conflict without increased Western support.
Russian Advances and Territorial Control
Over the past year, Russia has expanded its control over approximately 4,700 square kilometers (1,800 square miles) of Ukrainian territory, an area roughly twice the size of Moscow, according to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Russia continues to target strategic locations within the “fortress belt” in eastern Ukraine, with potential advances towards Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, and gaining near-total control of Huliaipole in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Russia attempted to annex these regions – along with Crimea, annexed in 2014 – through referendums shortly after the full-scale invasion, but has not achieved complete control. Control of these areas would provide Russia with a stronger urban foothold for future offensives and increased leverage in potential peace negotiations.
Ukraine’s Challenges: Manpower and Equipment
Western military sources indicate that Ukraine’s armies are quantitatively outmatched by Russia in both personnel and equipment across most of the front line, including near Lyman and Siversk. A Ukrainian military officer in Pokrovsk highlighted Russia’s “complete superiority in aviation and tactical ballistic missiles,” and its ability to strike Ukrainian battle formations and logistics with impunity.
Ukraine is facing acute manpower shortages, impacting its ability to conduct operations effectively. The need for more pilots for drone teams and infantry to support them has been emphasized.
Casualties and Attrition
The conflict has resulted in substantial casualties on both sides. Ukraine has reported approximately 55,000 soldiers killed, while the BBC has confirmed nearly 160,000 deaths on the Russian side. Estimates from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggest Russia suffered around 415,000 casualties in 2023 alone, totaling 1.2 million since the start of the full-scale invasion, while Ukraine has experienced 600,000 casualties since 2022.
Despite these losses, Russia appears willing to employ a “meat grinder” strategy, trading high numbers of infantry for territorial gains, supported by a large reserve pool. Moscow has supplemented its forces with troops from North Korea (approximately 17,000 as of early 2026) and recruits from various other countries, including India, Pakistan, Nepal, Cuba, Nigeria, and Senegal.
Shifting Tactics and Western Support
The recent shutdown of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet service at the beginning of February provided a temporary advantage to Ukraine, enabling the recapture of approximately 200 square kilometers (77 square miles) in the Zaporizhzhia region. However, Russia’s advances continue, albeit at a leisurely pace – approximately 70 meters per day in its offensive on Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, slower than any army in over a century of warfare.
The European Parliament has approved a €90 billion loan for Ukraine, with €60 billion earmarked for military procurement. Ukraine continues to request more powerful weaponry from the West, including long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles.
Negotiations and Future Outlook
Trilateral talks mediated by the United States have offered limited hope for a ceasefire, but have stalled, with Ukraine and Russia holding firm on their positions. Experts believe Russia is not negotiating in good faith and is unlikely to accept anything less than a full Ukrainian surrender.
The conflict is ongoing as of December 17, 2025, with Russia controlling significant portions of Ukrainian territory.