Pakistan and Afghanistan at ‘Open War’: A Deep Dive

Islamabad and Kabul are locked in escalating conflict, with Pakistan launching airstrikes on Afghan cities and Afghanistan responding with attacks on Pakistani soil. The situation, declared “open war” by Pakistan’s defense minister, marks a significant deterioration in relations and raises concerns about regional stability.

Escalation of Hostilities

On February 27, 2026, Pakistan conducted airstrikes targeting major cities in Afghanistan, including Kabul, Kandahar, and Paktia [1]. These strikes hit Taliban military posts, headquarters, and ammunition depots [1]. Afghanistan retaliated with attacks on Pakistani border forces, claiming responsibility for strikes targeting Pakistani military bases, command centers, and strategic facilities in multiple locations [1], [2].

Roots of the Conflict

While the recent escalation is dramatic, tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban have been simmering since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021. Initially, Pakistan welcomed the Taliban government, with then-Prime Minister Imran Khan stating Afghans had “broken the shackles of slavery” [4]. However, Islamabad soon found the Taliban less cooperative than anticipated.

Pakistan accuses the Taliban of harboring the leadership of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group responsible for attacks within Pakistan, and providing safe haven to Baloch insurgents seeking independence for the southwestern Pakistani province of Balochistan [4]. Militancy has been on the rise in Pakistan since 2022, with increased attacks by the TTP and Baloch insurgents [4].

Kabul, however, consistently denies allowing militants to utilize Afghan territory for attacks in Pakistan. The Afghan Taliban, in turn, accuses Pakistan of harboring fighters from its enemy, Islamic State [4], a charge Islamabad denies.

Recent Triggers and Operations

The current crisis was sparked by Pakistani security sources claiming “irrefutable evidence” linking militants in Afghanistan to a recent wave of attacks and suicide bombings in Pakistan since late 2024 [4]. An attack in the Bajaur district last week, which killed 11 security personnel and two civilians, was reportedly carried out by an Afghan national and claimed by the TTP [4].

Pakistan’s response, dubbed Operation Ghazab lil-Haq, involved airstrikes and ground operations [3]. Afghanistan responded with a “large-scale operation” against Pakistani military positions along the Durand Line [3].

Military Capabilities

There is a significant disparity in military capabilities between Pakistan and the Taliban. Pakistan’s armed forces comprise over 600,000 active personnel, with more than 6,000 armored fighting vehicles and over 400 combat aircraft [4]. Pakistan is likewise a nuclear-armed state.

In contrast, the Taliban possesses fewer than a third of Pakistan’s personnel (approximately 172,000) [4]. While the Taliban has at least six aircraft and 23 helicopters, their condition is unknown, and they lack fighter jets or a fully functional air force [4].

What’s Next?

Analysts predict Pakistan will likely intensify its military campaign, while Afghanistan may respond with raids on border posts and increased cross-border guerrilla attacks [4]. The fragile ceasefire that had been in place since October appears to have completely broken down [4]. The U.S. Diplomatic mission to Afghanistan stated it is monitoring the situation closely [1].