US-Israel Conflict with Iran: A Deep Dive

What began last Saturday as coordinated attacks on Iran by the U.S. And Israel has sprawled into a wider conflict with repercussions around the world. The American-Israeli military campaign set off a series of attacks and counterattacks that have hit or threatened several Gulf nations. The conflict also triggered political tensions and economic upheaval, drawing in countries far beyond the Middle East.

Casualties and Key Developments

More than 1,300 people in Iran have been killed as a result of the ongoing fighting, according to the Iranian Red Crescent Society. American and Israeli strikes killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as dozens of his top officials. The Iranian navy and air force have also been significantly weakened, with the Pentagon stating that the U.S. And Israel will soon have complete control of Iranian skies. President Trump has stated he will not negotiate with Iran unless it is prepared to unconditionally surrender, leaving the timeline for a ceasefire uncertain.

Countries Caught in the Crossfire

Soon after the U.S. And Israel launched their initial strikes, Iran carried out retaliatory attacks targeting Israel and U.S. Military bases in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates. Some of these strikes hit civilian areas, including hotels and airports, as well as oil and gas infrastructure.

American forces intercepted many of the Iranian missile and drone attacks. However, six U.S. Soldiers were killed by an Iranian strike on a command center in Kuwait. At least 10 people in Israel have been killed as a result of the clashes, according to Israeli authorities. A drone strike also hit a British air force base on the Mediterranean island of Cyprus last Sunday, and the U.K. Has since intercepted more drones there.

Iranian drones also struck Azerbaijan, which had previously sought to remain neutral. President Ilham Aliyev responded by stating, “We will not tolerate this unprovoked act of terror and aggression against Azerbaijan. Our Armed Forces have been instructed to prepare and implement appropriate retaliatory measures.”

A missile headed toward Turkey was shot down by a U.S. Warship. Turkey has seen an influx of Iranian refugees fleeing the bombardment.

Fighting has spread to Lebanon after Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group, launched attacks on Israel. Hezbollah initially cited the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader as the reason for its strikes, but later added that they were in response to ongoing Israeli attacks in Lebanon despite a ceasefire. Israeli forces have ordered Lebanese residents to evacuate as they launched attacks across southern and eastern Lebanon, including around Beirut. According to Lebanon’s Health Ministry, the Israeli strikes have killed at least 123 people as of Thursday. The Lebanese government has taken steps to distance itself from Hezbollah, including issuing arrest warrants for members behind the strikes into Israel and calling for the dismantling of Hezbollah’s military wing.

A U.S. Submarine sank an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka, prompting the government of the island nation to call for peace, expressing a desire to avoid becoming a victim of the war.

Testing of Alliances

The war has tested the alliances of both the U.S. And Iran. France, Italy, and the UK were initially wary of the U.S. And Israel’s actions regarding Iran’s leadership, but have since bolstered their military presence in the region to protect their citizens and interests and prevent further escalation.

The conflict has strained the U.K.’s relationship with the U.S. Britain initially rebuffed America’s request to leverage British military bases, but later allowed the U.S. To use them for “limited defensive action against missile facilities in Iran,” a move that has not satisfied President Trump. The war is also deepening a feud between the U.S. And Spain, after Spain refused to allow the U.S. To use its joint military bases, prompting a threat from Trump to cut off all trade with Spain. Meanwhile, Spain, France, Italy, Britain, Greece and the Netherlands have pledged to help protect European Union member Cyprus.

Iran’s relationships with Gulf Arab states have also been shaken, despite centuries-old trade and cultural ties. The conflict threatens the region’s tourism and its reputation as a global trade hub, particularly impacting Dubai.

China has sent an envoy to the Middle East, urging both Iran and the U.S. To stop military operations and return to negotiations, citing concerns about the impact on global energy markets. Russia has provided intelligence about targets to Iran, but has largely remained on the sidelines, issuing a condolence letter following the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader.

Economic Impacts

The conflict is taking a toll on the global economy, largely due to its impact on oil and the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit point for about a fifth of the world’s oil supply. Iran declared the strait closed, leading Iraq to shut down some of its oil production. Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery has also suspended production, and Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have reported strikes on their oil refineries.

Threats to the flow of oil have caused stock markets to decline and fueled fears of high inflation. Oil prices surged above $90 per barrel on Friday, the highest since September 2023. Gasoline prices in the U.S. Have risen to an average of $3.32 per gallon. India, a major buyer of crude oil from the Persian Gulf, is particularly vulnerable, prompting the U.S. Treasury Department to issue a 30-day waiver allowing Indian refineries to purchase Russian oil.