Sudan’s Escalating Drone Warfare and Humanitarian Crisis

Nearly three years into the conflict in Sudan, civilians are facing an increasing threat from aerial attacks. Recent weeks have seen a surge in drone strikes resulting in dozens of deaths across White Nile state and the Kordofan region. A particularly devastating incident earlier this month involved a drone strike on a vehicle carrying mourners in West Kordofan, reportedly killing approximately 40 people, many of whom were women ¹. Neither the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) nor the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have claimed responsibility for these attacks.

The Rise in Drone Attacks

Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project indicates at least 198 drone strikes were launched by both sides in January and February ¹. This increase suggests a continued supply of weaponry to the warring factions despite broader regional tensions. Analysts predict that violence, including drone warfare, will likely intensify in the coming months as both sides attempt to gain ground during the dry season before the onset of the rainy season in June or July ¹.

Strategic Importance of Kordofan

Fighting is heavily concentrated in Kordofan, a strategically crucial region that separates army-controlled northern and central Sudan, including the capital Khartoum, from areas controlled by the RSF in Darfur and the south.

A Humanitarian Catastrophe

The war, which began around April 15, 2023, stemming from a power struggle over the integration of the RSF into the SAF, has created a massive humanitarian crisis. Estimates suggest up to 250,000 people have been killed ¹, though a precise death toll remains unattainable due to ongoing conflict and limited access to affected areas. The conflict has likewise triggered the world’s largest mass displacement, with as many as 14 million people internally and externally displaced ¹.

The United Nations Refugee Agency and international aid organizations report widespread sexual violence and mass killings. UNESCO estimates that over 12 million women and girls – out of a total population of just over 50 million – are at risk of gender-based violence in Sudan ¹. The World Health Organization has warned that more than 20 million people in Sudan require health assistance, with outbreaks of cholera, malaria, and dengue fever spreading across all 18 states due to the collapse of health, water, and sanitation systems ¹.

War Crimes and International Neglect

Rights groups accuse both sides of committing atrocities that may constitute war crimes and acts of genocide. Despite the severity of the situation, Sudan remains one of the most neglected global crises, according to several surveys ¹. Samy Guessabi, Sudan country director at Action Against Hunger, stated that the crisis is “increasingly disappearing from international attention” ¹.

The Disproportionate Impact on Women and Girls

Women and girls are bearing a disproportionate burden of the suffering. Families facing starvation are increasingly resorting to desperate measures, including early marriage ¹. Approximately 19 million children are currently out of school in Sudan, raising concerns about increased social risks, including child marriage ¹. However, women are also emerging as leaders in community-driven emergency aid and peace efforts, organizing community kitchens and providing psychosocial support.

International Efforts and External Involvement

Multiple rounds of peace negotiations, initiated by the Quad (United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), have largely failed. The US and EU have imposed sanctions on both the RSF and SAF, as well as individuals affiliated with both sides. Recently, the US designated the Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist organization ¹.

Policy analyst Hamid Khalafallah suggests this designation is linked to the broader geopolitical context, including the US-Israel stance on Iran and efforts to strengthen ties with the United Arab Emirates. While Egypt and Turkey support the SAF-backed government, the United Arab Emirates is widely believed to be a key backer of the RSF, despite denials from Abu Dhabi ¹.

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) were formerly operated by the Sudanese government and originated as a component of the Sudanese government’s border patrol ². As of 2023, the RSF had an estimated size of 100,000 to 150,000 personnel ². The RSF has been accused of atrocities, including involvement in the Darfur genocide ².