Strait of Hormuz Shipping Crisis Deepens as Iran Continues Oil Shipments to China
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed dramatically, with most commercial traffic paralyzed, even as a select number of Iranian-linked vessels continue to navigate the waterway despite escalating security risks. The situation is further complicated by electronic interference and the practice of ships disabling their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS).
Iran Maintains Oil Flow to China Amidst Tensions
Despite the ongoing conflict between U.S.-Israel and Iran, Iran has continued to ship crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz to China. At least 11.7 million barrels of crude oil have been transported through the waterway since the war began on February 28, according to TankerTrackers.com 1. Kpler estimates around 12 million barrels have passed through the strait since the start of the war 1. China remains the primary buyer of Iranian crude, making it a likely destination for these shipments.
Ships Employ Tactics to Avoid Targeting
As tensions rise, commercial ships are increasingly attempting to avoid potential attacks by broadcasting Chinese affiliations. At least 11 vessels in the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf have been observed setting their transponders to announce “China owner” or “China cargo” 2. This practice is seen as a defensive measure, leveraging China’s perceived neutrality in the conflict to provide a degree of “diplomatic bulletproofing” 2. Similar tactics are being adopted, with vessels disabling transponders to avoid detection.
US Response and Regional Impacts
A U.S. Strike on military targets on Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export terminal, has further heightened risks to global oil supply chains. The U.S. Is actively seeking support from allies to deploy warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz 1. Though, the situation remains fluid, with reports of successful passage for some vessels, suggesting potential back-channel coordination allowing select ships to bypass the gridlock.
Challenges in Tracking Vessel Movements
Electronic interference is disrupting vessel-tracking systems, and many ships are disabling their AIS in high-risk areas, reducing the timeliness and reliability of tracking information. Vessels can travel without broadcasting their location until they are well away from the Strait of Hormuz, making it difficult to monitor movements accurately. Iran-linked oil tankers often do not broadcast signals until reaching the Strait of Malacca, approximately ten days after passing Fujairah in the UAE.
Iran’s Stance and Continued Operations
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has vowed to continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows 2. Despite the increased risks, Iranian-linked vessels continue to transit the Gulf, with several observed exiting the Gulf and one entering the Persian Gulf in the last 24 hours.
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains highly volatile and is closely monitored by global shipping and energy markets.