The Shifting Sands of Energy: India, Russia, and the Remaking of Global Supply Chains
As war in the Middle East rattles global energy markets, it is again highlighting the fragility of the world’s fossil-fuel system. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – one of the most critical arteries of global oil and gas trade – have sent prices swinging and forced major importers to adapt. India, for example, has begun turning back toward Russian crude as shipments through the region grow more uncertain. Oil prices have surged, with Russia’s Urals crude hitting record highs.1
India Diversifies its Crude Oil Sources
India now routes 70 percent of its crude oil imports outside the Strait of Hormuz, up from a previous baseline of 55 percent, according to the government.2 This shift reflects a broader strategy aimed at reducing dependence on the key oil shipping corridor amid regional tensions. India’s daily crude requirement is around 5.5 million barrels, and the revised logistics plan is intended to keep supply stable.
Russian oil imports have surged by 50 percent in March, reaching around 1.5 million barrels per day, up from 1.04 million bpd in February.3 This increase comes as India seeks alternative supplies amid disruptions to shipments from the Middle East due to the widening military conflict. India secured around 30 million barrels of Russian oil after the United States granted a 30-day waiver allowing purchases.2 Russian crude accounted for around one-third of India’s oil imports between 2024, and 2026.2
Refinery Capacity and Domestic Supply
Domestic refineries are operating at maximum capacity to maintain a steady supply of petrol and diesel. Some units are currently running above 100 percent of their rated capacity.2 The government guarantees a full supply of CNG and domestic PNG.
Global Implications and the Rise of Renewables
Such disruptions often accelerate deeper structural changes already underway. Governments are increasingly viewing the transition to cleaner and more domestically anchored energy systems not only as a climate imperative, but also as a matter of economic resilience and strategic competitiveness. China added roughly one gigawatt of clean power every day in 2024.4 By May 2025, it surpassed one terawatt of installed solar capacity, a level the entire world reached only three years earlier. In a single year, China installed more solar than the United States has built in total.
India is building industrial ecosystems around renewables from the ground up, with three-quarters of the country’s new power capacity coming from renewable sources through January of the current financial year.4
The Strategic Choice for the West
Western leaders face a strategic choice: continue framing sustainability as a regulatory burden or recognize it as the foundation of economic growth and industrial renewal. Capital is already flowing, supply chains are consolidating, and talent is in training. The question is no longer whether the transition will happen, but whether nations will help shape the new industrial system or inherit one designed by others.
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