Andalusia Election 2026: PP Poised for Absolute Majority as Socialist Influence Wanes

The political landscape of southern Spain is undergoing a decisive shift as voters in Andalucía cast their ballots in the 2026 regional elections. Early projections suggest a significant consolidation of power for the conservative People’s Party (PP), led by incumbent President Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, while the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) faces a continued decline in one of its historical strongholds.

As the polls close, the results are expected to serve as a critical barometer for the broader Spanish political climate ahead of next year’s general elections. The high level of engagement suggests that the electorate is deeply invested in the direction of both regional and national governance.

The Race for an Absolute Majority

The central narrative of this election is the potential for the People’s Party to secure an absolute majority in the Andalusian Parliament. To govern without the need for coalition partners, the PP must secure at least 55 of the 109 available seats.

According to the Sigma Dos poll for Canal Sur, the PP is on track to replicate its previous success, with projections placing their seat count between 56 and 59. This would provide the Moreno Bonilla administration with a stable mandate to continue its current legislative agenda. However, data from Sociométrica for El Español suggests a tighter race, projecting the PP between 54 and 56 seats, leaving the achievement of an absolute majority in doubt.

A Shifting Left: The PSOE’s Declining Foothold

For the PSOE, the election represents a moment of profound challenge. Under the candidacy of María Jesús Montero, the party is struggling to arrest its electoral decline in the region. Once a dominant force in Andalusian politics, the Socialists are facing projections that suggest their worst-ever performance.

The Sigma Dos poll indicates a drop to between 26 and 29 seats, down from their current 30. Even more concerning for the party is the Sociométrica projection, which suggests a further slide to as few as 23–25 seats. This trend underscores a significant realignment of the Andalusian electorate away from traditional socialist structures.

The Fragmented Landscape: Vox and Emerging Forces

While the battle for dominance occurs between the PP and PSOE, the trajectory of other parties remains a key point of interest for analysts. The far-right Vox party appears to be maintaining its presence, with projections ranging from 13 to 17 seats, depending on the poll. This stability suggests that while the political center is shifting, the right-wing vote remains a significant, if not expanding, component of the regional assembly.

Simultaneously, there is evidence of growth among smaller political movements. Adelante Andalucía is projected to see a notable increase in representation, potentially rising from two seats to between four and nine. Similarly, Por Andalucía is expected to strengthen its position, with projections suggesting between five and eight seats. This fragmentation indicates that the Andalusian Parliament is becoming increasingly diverse, moving away from a two-party dominance toward a more complex multi-party system.

Key Election Projections at a Glance

Based on the most recent polling data available as the results emerge:

• People’s Party (PP): Projected 54–59 seats (Potential absolute majority).
• PSOE: Projected 23–29 seats (Significant decline).
• Vox: Projected 13–17 seats (Stable/Slight growth).
• Adelante Andalucía: Projected 4–9 seats (Significant growth).
• Por Andalucía: Projected 5–8 seats (Growth).

Voter Turnout: A Surge in Civic Engagement

One of the most striking developments of the 2026 election is the surge in voter participation. As of 18:00, turnout reached 52.11%, marking an increase of more than seven percentage points compared to the 2022 elections. This heightened engagement reflects a highly mobilized electorate, likely driven by the high stakes surrounding the regional government’s future and its implications for Spain’s national political trajectory.

As the final tallies are processed, with the last polling stations—including the CEIP Azahares in Sevilla Este—expected to conclude reporting late this evening, the region awaits the definitive confirmation of this historic political realignment.