Steve Hilton Secures Spot in California Gubernatorial Run-Off After Strong Primary Performance

Steve Hilton, a British-born Republican strategist and former Fox News host, advanced to California’s November gubernatorial run-off after securing 25% of the primary vote, finishing second to former Attorney General Xavier Becerra, according to official results released on June 5. The outcome marks a rare breakthrough for a Republican in the state, which has not elected a GOP candidate for statewide office since 2006.

Hilton’s Campaign Strategy and Challenges

Hilton, who moved to the U.S. 14 years ago, positioned himself as a pragmatic alternative to California’s Democratic leadership, promising to address the state’s housing crisis, cost-of-living challenges, and bureaucratic inefficiencies. His campaign focused on broad appeal, drawing support from working-class voters, Latino small business owners, Silicon Valley tech figures, and religious conservatives, according to a June 3 poll by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Despite his strong showing, Hilton faces steep odds. California’s open primary system, which allows voters of any party to participate, amplified competition, with progressive billionaire Tom Steyer finishing third with 22.6% of the vote, according to the California Secretary of State. Hilton’s 25% share mirrors the performance of 2018 Republican gubernatorial candidate John Cox, who ultimately lost to Democrat Gavin Newsom by 10 points.

Political Realities in a Blue State

Republican candidates in California have struggled for decades, with the party holding no statewide offices since Arnold Schwarzenegger’s 2006 gubernatorial win. Hilton’s bid is further complicated by the state’s political climate: 58% of Californians favor Democrats, and the GOP’s national profile remains weakened by former President Donald Trump’s unpopularity, according to a May 2024 Pew Research Center survey.

Hilton’s alignment with Trump, including a public endorsement and claims of personal connections to his administration, has drawn scrutiny. However, he has sought to distance himself from Trump’s more controversial stances, acknowledging Biden’s 2020 election victory and criticizing California’s slow vote-counting process as emblematic of broader state inefficiencies.

The Run-Off Dynamics

Becerra, a former U.S. health secretary, has faced internal Democratic challenges, including a scandal involving his former chief of staff, which he has denied knowledge of. Hilton has criticized Becerra as an “unaccomplished establishment nonentity,” while Steyer, a progressive climate advocate, has raised concerns about potential legal actions against Becerra ahead of the November election.

Analysts remain skeptical of Hilton’s chances. Garry South, a veteran Democratic strategist, compared Hilton’s prospects to “monkeypox,” a reference to the 2021 pandemic, suggesting his campaign is unlikely to succeed. “Steve Hilton has as much chance of becoming governor as I do,” South said in a June 4 interview with KQED.

What’s Next for the Race?

The run-off, scheduled for November 5, will test Hilton’s ability to broaden his appeal. His campaign has emphasized policy-focused messaging, including support for expediting infrastructure projects and reducing regulatory barriers. However, experts note that California’s electorate remains deeply divided, with 54% of voters believing the state is “moving in the wrong direction,” according to a June 2024 Los Angeles Times poll.

For Hilton, the path to victory hinges on mobilizing disaffected voters and leveraging his unique background as a British immigrant and media figure. His campaign has also sought to downplay ties to Trump, instead highlighting his experience in shaping Conservative Party strategies in the U.K., including his role in elevating David Cameron to prime minister in 2010.

As the race enters its final phase, all eyes will be on how Hilton navigates the challenges of a state where Republicans have not won a major election since 2006.