Global energy markets face severe strain as attacks on vital refinery infrastructure compound ongoing maritime disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. According to Reuters data, crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply to just four vessels on Tuesday, September 15, falling far below the ten-day average of roughly 18 daily passages. While maritime chokepoints restrict the flow of physical barrels, energy analysts point to targeted strikes on onshore refining facilities as the primary driver behind potential multi-year supply shortages and surging fuel prices.
Refinery Infrastructure Becomes Primary Military Target
A critical blow struck Saudi Arabia’s export capacity on September 11 when an unassigned strike hit the East-West pipeline, which routes crude from the eastern provinces to Red Sea terminals while bypassing Hormuz. According to CNN, loadings from the Yanbu refining complex experienced heavy disruptions, echoing earlier security vulnerabilities after an Iranian drone targeted the Saudi Aramco and ExxonMobil-owned SAMREF refinery in Yanbu back in March. Physical crude cargoes in Europe surpassed $130 per barrel for select grades on September 15, while Brent crude traded near $110, according to Reuters data.
Parallel disruptions plague Russia’s refined oil sector. According to the Kyiv Post, data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that a Ukrainian drone successfully struck a Russian refinery on average once every three days during the first eight months of 2026. Major Russian diesel-producing facilities—including Omsk, Kirishi, Taneco, Volgograd, NORSI, and Perm—have significantly reduced output or shuttered processing units entirely. In response to mounting fuel scarcity, Donald Trump urged Volodymyr Zelensky on September 13 to halt strikes on Russian oil infrastructure to stabilize diesel supplies and curb surging retail fuel costs.
Market analysts warn that these physical processing losses pose a far greater threat than temporary maritime blockades. Morgans highlighted in a Forbes-cited scenario that prolonged refinery downtime could drive Brent crude beyond $150 per barrel. Unlike ships delayed at sea, damaged processing infrastructure removes vital capacity for years, creating an unbridgeable supply gap.
China’s Demand Management and U.S. Production Pressures
Despite mounting supply losses, benchmark prices have avoided crossing the $150 threshold largely due to subdued Chinese demand and extensive national stockpiles. According to EIA estimates, Beijing currently holds roughly 1.4 billion barrels in reserve. While the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) historically dictated market momentum through supply quotas, analysts note that China now exerts primary influence through demand and inventory control.
Meanwhile, American refineries have ramped up production to offset deficits originating in the Middle East and Russia.
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