AI Adoption: Executive Concerns Over Job Cuts Contrast with Employee Optimism

A recent study by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reveals a significant disconnect between how executives and employees perceive the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the job market. While executives anticipate potential job losses due to AI implementation, employees largely believe AI will lead to job creation.

Current AI Adoption Rates

The NBER study, based on a survey of nearly 6,000 firms across the US, UK, Germany, and Australia, found that approximately 69% of businesses are currently utilizing some form of AI [The Register]. Common applications include text generation using large language models, visual content creation, and data processing using machine learning [The Register].

Limited Impact to Date

Despite widespread adoption, the study indicates that AI has had a limited impact on both employment and productivity over the past three years. More than 80% of executives reported no discernible change in either area [The Register]. Specifically, over 90% of managers stated AI had no impact on employment levels, and 89% observed no change in productivity (measured as sales volume per employee) [The Register].

Future Expectations: A Diverging Outlook

Looking ahead, executives predict a shift in the coming three years. They forecast a 1.4% boost in productivity, a 0.8% increase in output, and a 0.7% reduction in employment due to AI [NBER]. However, employee expectations diverge significantly. Employees anticipate a 0.5% increase in employment over the same period [NBER]. This contrast highlights a substantial gap in expectations regarding AI’s future impact on the workforce.

Broader Economic Implications

The NBER research builds upon a growing body of work examining the economic implications of AI. A January 2026 paper from Charles I. Jones emphasizes that AI could be the most transformative technology ever developed, potentially reshaping economic activity and increasing living standards [NBER]. However, the current data suggests that the anticipated commercial benefits of AI are not yet fully materializing.

Funding and Research

The “Firm Data on AI” study was supported by grants from the Sloan Foundation (#G-2023-19633) and the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation (#20251294) [NBER]. The Economics of Transformative AI Workshop was held in Fall 2025 [NBER].