Arizona’s 1st Congressional District Primary: Establishment Backing and Outside Spending

Democratic primary voters in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District will head to the polls next Tuesday to select a nominee for a seat the party views as a critical bellwether for November. The race has drawn significant outside investment, with super PACs backing candidates including former Republican Marlene Galán-Woods and businessman Jonathan Treble, while simultaneously opposing former Democratic nominee Amish Shah.

The Dynamics of Outside Spending in the 1st District

The contest has become a focal point for national Democratic interests, with outside groups injecting just under $3 million into the primary. Much of this spending involves super PACs with ties to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

According to campaign finance disclosures, Pro-Choice Majority Action—which supports female candidates who advocate for abortion rights—has spent more than a half a million dollars in the district. The group is primarily funded by the EDW Action Fund, which received $1 million from the United Democracy Project (UDP), an AIPAC-affiliated super PAC. Additionally, the PAC for Democratic Majority for Israel contributed $37,750 to EDW Action in April.

While these groups are investing in the primary, a spokesperson for the United Democracy Project stated that the organization has no involvement in the Arizona 1st District race.

Candidate Backgrounds and Party Alignment

The primary features candidates with varied political histories, complicating the narrative for voters in a district that includes affluent Phoenix exurbs.

* Marlene Galán-Woods: A former registered Republican who changed her party affiliation in 2018. She has secured the endorsement of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). Her campaign focuses on reproductive rights, backed by groups like EMILY’s List and Planned Parenthood Action Fund.
* Jonathan Treble: A businessman who has self-funded his campaign with $2.3 million. He is supported by the “Crush MAGA” super PAC, which frames him as the only “lifelong Democrat” in the race.
* Amish Shah: The district’s former Democratic nominee. He faces opposition from PACs citing his 2016 primary vote for Donald Trump, which Shah has described as an attempt to assist Hillary Clinton’s campaign.
* Rick McCartney: A candidate who has criticized the party establishment’s involvement in the primary, arguing that the “old playbook” of recruiting former Republicans to appeal to swing voters fails to resonate with the community.

Financial Standing and Electoral Stakes

As of the most recent filings, Treble leads the field in total fundraising with $4 million, followed by Galán-Woods at $2.2 million, Shah at $1.8 million, and McCartney at $1.3 million.

The district, which is around 20 percent Hispanic and consists largely of white residents in wealthy neighborhoods, is considered a toss-up. With incumbent Republican Rep. David Schweikert departing to run for governor, the seat is viewed as a high-priority target for Democrats.

Primary Outlook

The influence of outside groups remains a central theme, with BOLD America—founded by former members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus—spending just under $1 million to oppose Shah. Despite these efforts, the candidate favored to win remains unclear. The most recent public polling for the race, conducted in February, showed Shah leading the field by 22 percentage points, though the landscape has shifted significantly since that time. Voters will determine the final nominee in the primary election on Tuesday.