Al-Aqsa Mosque Tensions Escalate as Ramadan Begins Amidst Collapsed Status Quo

Jerusalem – Tensions surrounding the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound have reached a critical point as the Islamic holy month of Ramadan begins, with a six-decade-aged agreement governing prayer at the site effectively collapsed. Israeli police actions, including raids, arrests and restrictions on Muslim access, have sparked concerns of escalating conflict, mirroring historical precedents where changes to the status quo have ignited unrest.

A Decades-Old Agreement in Jeopardy

The existing status quo, established after the 1967 Six-Day War, stipulated that only Muslims were permitted to pray within the Al-Haram al-Sharif compound – known to Jews as the Temple Mount. Recent actions by Israeli authorities are widely seen as a rupture of this agreement. Experts warn that the situation is “exponentially more sensitive” given current regional instability.

Recent Escalations and Restrictions

The recent escalation includes the arrest of Muslim staff, including an imam of the Al-Aqsa Mosque, and a police raid during evening prayers on the first night of Ramadan. Israeli police have also curbed Muslim access to the compound. Prior to Ramadan, dozens of young men were barred from entering the mosque, and authorities signaled they would not ease restrictions for worshippers from the occupied West Bank.

Further complicating matters, the Jerusalem Waqf – the Jordanian-appointed body administering the site – has faced increasing pressure. Reports indicate five staff members are in administrative detention (detention without charge), 38 have been banned from entering the site, and six imams have been denied access. The Waqf has also been hampered in its preparations for Ramadan, facing restrictions on repairs, installing shelters, and even providing basic supplies like toilet paper.

Political Context and Far-Right Influence

The changes are occurring under a far-right Israeli leadership. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has a history of inflammatory rhetoric and prior criminal convictions, has openly advocated for increased Israeli control over the site, including raising the Israeli flag and building a synagogue within the compound. His appointment of Maj. Gen. Avshalom Peled as Jerusalem police chief in January was viewed as a move to advance these plans.

The police have extended visiting hours for Jews and tourists during Ramadan, and allowed Jews to bring prayer sheets onto the site – actions seen as clear violations of the status quo.

Historical Precedents and Potential for Conflict

Changes to the status quo at Al-Aqsa have historically been a trigger for wider conflict. A visit by Ariel Sharon to the site in 2000 ignited the Second Intifada, and Hamas cited Israeli violations at the mosque as a justification for its October 2023 attack on Israel. Analysts warn that the current situation is particularly dangerous, with a confluence of factors that could incentivize further escalation.

“Al-Aqsa is a detonator,” said Daniel Seidemann, a Jerusalem lawyer specializing in the city’s legal and historical issues.

Police Deployment and Permit Restrictions

Israeli police have announced a significant deployment around the Al-Aqsa Mosque for the duration of Ramadan. While the final number of permits for Palestinians from the West Bank is still to be determined, initial recommendations suggest issuing only 10,000 permits. The Palestinian Jerusalem Governorate reports that permits may again be restricted to men over 55 and women over 50, mirroring last year’s criteria.