Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) has overtaken Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative bloc in multiple recent polls, marking the first time the far-right party leads in voter intention surveys.
According to a ZDF poll conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen between April 14 and 16 among 1,355 eligible voters, AfD holds steady at 26% support, while the CDU/CSU bloc has fallen to 25%, down one point from the end of March. This narrow lead gives AfD a slim but consistent edge across three consecutive polls.
The governing coalition between Merz’s conservatives and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) would no longer hold a parliamentary majority under these results, as SPD support dropped to 12% — its lowest level in the ZDF survey — weakening the alliance’s combined strength below the threshold needed for control of the Bundestag.
Other parties show mixed movements: the Greens rose to 14%, the Left Party to 11%, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) remains at 3%, below the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation.
A separate YouGov survey cited in the 24chasa.bg report places AfD at 27%, up one point, while the conservative bloc fell three points to 23% — its lowest level in YouGov polling since December 2021. The SPD declined to 13% in that survey, with the Greens and Left Party gaining to 14% and 10% respectively.
Both the FDP and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) register at 4% in the YouGov survey, also below the parliamentary threshold. Dissatisfaction with the federal government has surged, with 79% of respondents expressing disapproval — up from 55% in June 2025 — while satisfaction among conservative supporters dropped to 34% in April from 48% in March.
Analysts note that AfD’s lead is not isolated to one polling firm; similar results have appeared in surveys by Infsa and Forsa, reinforcing the party’s position as the top choice among voters despite its controversial platform and ongoing surveillance by domestic intelligence services over extremist concerns.
The trend reflects broader voter unease, particularly over rising energy costs linked to the war in Iran, which the government has struggled to address effectively, according to the 24chasa.bg report citing DPA.
Why has AfD’s support remained stable while other parties fluctuate?
Sources indicate AfD’s 26% support in the ZDF poll has remained unchanged week-to-week, contrasting with declines in the conservative bloc and SPD. This stability suggests a hardened base of support, even as other parties lose ground due to dissatisfaction with governance and policy responses to crises like energy prices.
What does the loss of a coalition majority mean for German governance?
With the CDU/CSU-SPD alliance falling below a majority in the Bundestag, the current government would lack the votes to pass legislation without support from other parties, potentially leading to legislative gridlock or the require for ad hoc coalitions on key votes.