The ANC’s Rural Firewall Collapses
The ANC is losing its grip on the rural heartlands that have long served as the party’s bedrock. Data analyzed by News24 reveals a systemic erosion of power that reaches far beyond the party’s well-documented struggles in South Africa’s urban metros. As ballots are tallied, the ANC’s traditional dominance in the North West, Limpopo, and Mpumalanga provinces is fraying.
ANC Loses Historical Control Across North West Municipalities
In the North West, the party’s historical control is evaporating. Once holding 15 of 18 municipalities outright, the ANC now faces a new reality. By Friday morning, with 69% of the vote counted, provincial support sat at 44.81%—a sharp decline from the 55.43% secured in 2021.
The shift is stark at the municipal level. In Mamusa, the ANC’s majority has vanished; the party now holds 44.66% of the vote, down from 55.48% in 2021. Similarly, in the Ramotshere Moiloa municipality, support has cratered to 39.5% with 51% of the vote counted, a significant drop from the 61.23% recorded in 2021. While Kagisano-Molopo remains a relative bastion at 63.56%, the broader trend signals a loss of total provincial command.
Limpopo tells a similar story. With 66% of the vote counted, the ANC’s provincial support has dipped to 54.91% from 68.27% in 2021. In Lephalale, the DA has surged to 20.57%, while the ANC has slipped to 44.54% from its 2021 result of 61.02%.
MK Party Overtakes ANC in Mpumalanga Municipalities
A significant realignment is unfolding in Mpumalanga. In the eMkhondo municipality, the MK Party (MKP) has overtaken the ANC, securing 40.88% of the vote against the ANC’s 33.98%. This marks a total reversal from 2021, when the ANC commanded 54.04% of the area.
The MKP has also reshaped the Dr Pixley Ka Isaka Semi municipality. Although the ANC remains the largest party, its support has plummeted 20 percentage points to 40.34%. By claiming 32.19% of the vote, the MKP has effectively displaced the EFF as the second-biggest party.
Rural Voter Shift Threatens ANC Electoral Base
These shifting dynamics suggest the ANC’s rural base is no longer a guaranteed vote, a development that could fundamentally alter the calculations for the 2029 national and provincial elections. The party’s decline is consistent across nearly every municipality analyzed; for instance, in Ba-Phalaborwa, the ANC dropped from 61.15% in 2021 to 43.55% with 96% of the vote counted.
Pending Vote Counts and Objections Leave Seat Allocations Uncertain
Final seat allocations remain in flux as the remaining votes are processed and potential objections are resolved. These figures are based on incomplete counts or uncertified final counts and could change in the event of successful objections.
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