Apple Decouples From Nasdaq, Offering Alternative to AI-Driven Volatility
It’s been almost 20 years since Apple Inc. Was so disconnected from its technological peers, offering investors an attractive alternative to the artificial intelligence (AI) driven volatility which has affected much of the stock market in recent weeks.
Correlation with the Nasdaq 100 at its Lowest Since 2006
The 40-day correlation between Apple and the Nasdaq 100 fell to 0.21 last week, its lowest level since 2006, according to data compiled by Bloomberg 1. This metric has been declining since May, when it reached 0.92, reflecting how the company’s decision to largely stay out of the AI arms race has made it an atypical case within the technology sector 2.
A correlation of 1 implies that two assets are moving in perfect sync, while a reading of -1 indicates movements in opposite directions. The current decoupling reinforces the perception that Apple acts as a relative refuge in the face of turbulence in the sector.
Immune to the Vicious AI Cycle
For more than a month, investors have been trapped in a cycle driven by artificial intelligence: on the one hand, the fear that the hundreds of billions of dollars invested will not generate sufficient returns, on the other, the concern that multiple industries will be made obsolete by this same technology.
Apple does not fit into either of these extreme scenarios. The manufacturer of the iPhone is not leading the AI infrastructure spending boom nor does it rely on a line of business that could be directly threatened by AI tools.
Apple’s capital spending for 2025 was just USD 12.7 billion, and Wall Street hopes for USD 12.9 billion by 2026. In contrast, Meta projected a capital expenditure of between USD 115 billion and USD 135 billion for this year 1. The combined investments of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta could reach USD 650 billion this year, a figure that shows the contrast with Apple’s more conservative stance.
Superior Performance in February
Apple’s disengagement was clearly reflected on Tuesday, when its stock rose 3.2%, widely surpassing the fall of 0.1% of the Nasdaq 100 3. It was the third time this month that the stock outperformed the index by at least three percentage points.
In February, the stock accumulated an increase of 1.7%, compared to a fall of 3.2% in the Nasdaq 100 and a retreat of 7.2% in the Magnificent Seven index, which is heading for its worst monthly performance since March 2. This behavior consolidates the narrative of Apple as a defensive asset within the technology sector.
Strong Results Support the Stock
Quarterly results released last month reinforced this positive perception. Apple reported record sales, highlighting the strength of its star product, the iPhone, and provided guidance for the current quarter above market expectations.
the company will hold a launch event on March 4 and is preparing to unveil several new devices in the coming weeks 1. These factors help sustain investor confidence amid the uncertainty generated by AI.
Alliance with Alphabet to Promote AI
The fact that Apple has not invested aggressively in artificial intelligence wasn’t always seen as something positive. Wall Street was hoping for disruptive upgrades that would reinvigorate consumer enthusiasm.
However, after delays in key developments and a lukewarm reception for its first AI tools, the company appears to be opting for a different strategy. In January, Apple announced a strategic alliance with Alphabet to integrate AI capabilities. The next generation of Apple Foundation Models will be based on Google’s Gemini models and cloud technology 1.
This strategy would allow Apple to offer advanced AI products without taking on the huge capital expenditure that its competitors are facing.
Margins and High Valuation
Despite its appeal as a refuge, the outlook is not without risks. Margins could come under pressure due to the rise in chip prices, driven by the high demand for memory associated with AI. CEO Tim Cook has not ruled out price increases, but this could affect demand in an environment of higher cost of living.
the stock is trading around 30 times next year’s estimated earnings, a multiple higher than that of almost all the Magnificent Seven companies (except Tesla) and well above the 24 times the Nasdaq 100.
Analysts project revenue growth of 11% for the fiscal year ending in September, slowing to 6.7% in 2027. A moderation in earnings growth is also anticipated.
Wall Street will remain attentive to any concrete progress in AI that can add structural momentum to growth and sustain the defensive buying that currently supports the stock.
In a market dominated by technological uncertainty and the debate over the profitability of artificial intelligence, Apple is positioned as a relatively stable alternative within the technology sector, although not free of structural challenges.