Arizona State’s March Madness Bubble: Bracketology Update & Projections

by Daniel Perez - News Editor
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Arizona State Sun Devils on the Verge of March Madness

TEMPE, AZ – The Arizona State Sun Devils women’s basketball team finds itself on the cusp of its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2019, bolstered by a strong finish to the regular season and key victories over conference rivals. Currently holding a record of 22-7 overall and 9-7 in the Big 12 as of February 23, 2026, the Sun Devils are firmly in the conversation for a bid to March Madness in Molly Miller’s inaugural season as head coach.

Bubble Status and Key Wins

Arizona State’s recent success, including wins against Arizona and Iowa State, has significantly improved their standing in bracketology projections. The team has a 6-2 record in Quad 2 games and has secured victories against all Big 12 teams currently considered on the bubble, with the exception of BYU. Analysts currently place them as the last team in the field of 68.

Despite a loss to West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament on Friday, the Sun Devils’ overall body of work, including their first Quad 1 win of the season against Iowa State, has positioned them favorably. Whereas the Iowa State win may not be considered a signature victory, it represents a crucial step forward for the program.

Bracketology Update (March 7, 2026)

As of March 7, 2026, Arizona State is listed as one of the “First Four Out” in the latest bracketology projections. The teams currently considered “Last Four In” are:

  • Colorado
  • Nebraska
  • South Dakota State
  • Arizona State

The teams immediately following as “Next Four Out” are Virginia, Richmond, BYU, and Stanford.

Looking Ahead: Potential Scenarios

Several factors could influence Arizona State’s tournament fate. The outcomes of other conference tournaments, particularly the Big 12, will play a significant role. Colorado’s game against West Virginia in the Big 12 Semifinals is a key matchup to watch. Upsets in other conferences could open up at-large bid opportunities.

In other conferences, results from the Ivy League (Princeton vs. Columbia) and the Summit League (South Dakota State vs. North Dakota State) could as well impact the at-large landscape. A win for Princeton or South Dakota State would free up a potential bid for a team like Arizona State.

Molly Miller’s Impact

This season marks a remarkable turnaround for the Arizona State program under the leadership of Coach Molly Miller. A 14-win improvement from the previous season demonstrates the positive impact of her coaching and the team’s dedication. A trip to the NCAA Tournament would be a fitting culmination to a successful first year.

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