Arsenal vs. Manchester City: A Defining Carabao Cup Final

Arsenal seeks to lift the League Cup for the third time in its history on Sunday (4:30pm UK) when they face Manchester City at Wembley Stadium, potentially securing their first silverware of a promising campaign. Having overcome Port Vale, Brighton & Hove Albion, Crystal Palace, and Chelsea to reach their first cup final since 2020, Mikel Arteta has the opportunity to turn into the first Arsenal manager to win both of his major finals with the club.

City Eye Number Nine

This year’s League Cup final marks the first time the top two teams in England’s top-flight will contest the match. Pep Guardiola will be aiming to deliver a psychological blow as he attempts to close the gap on Arsenal at the Premier League summit, with a league encounter scheduled just 28 days after the Wembley meeting. Manchester City has won eight of their nine League Cup finals, with only Liverpool having won the competition more often (10). They have triumphed in each of their last seven finals, since a loss to Wolves in 1974.

City reached the final by defeating Huddersfield Town, Swansea City, Brentford, and Newcastle United by two-goal margins in each tie, seeking a ninth triumph in the competition and a fifth under Guardiola, which would make him the League Cup’s most decorated manager. Yet, following their 5-1 defeat to Real Madrid in the Champions League midweek, City enters the match having won only one of their last five games, and having lost their last two major finals – the 2024 Manchester derby in the FA Cup and last season’s League Cup final to Crystal Palace.

What the Managers Say

Arteta: “It’s one of the defining moments because at the end, it’s whether you win the trophy or not – and that’s the most vital thing once you get to the final. But in order to be there, you have to do a lot of things and earn a lot of things as the team has done so far.”

“One of the best memories I have as a player is playing those types of games. That’s why we’re all remarkably excited, because we know what’s at stake. We really wish it and we know what it’s going to mean for our people as well.”

Guardiola: “We have got to Wembley 22 times in 10 years, it’s an honour and a big challenge. For the team it’s a big moment. When we reach the final, no matter the competition, it’s always tough. [Arsenal] are an exceptional team, it’s a big challenge for us to see our level. We see the level in Europe, other leagues and any competition. To be there, we have to see it as a big opportunity because we never know when it will happen again.”

Team News

Mikel Arteta will continue to assess captain Martin Odegaard before the final, who has missed the last six games with a knee problem. Jurrien Timber also came off early against Bayer Leverkusen in midweek with an ankle issue. Arteta will assess both players in training before making a decision on their availability, as well as who starts in goal after Kepa Arrizabalaga featured in all previous rounds. Guardiola has confirmed that James Trafford will start in goal, having played in every tie to this point. Marc Guehi is cup-tied, having played for Crystal Palace against Arsenal in the quarter-finals before his January move, while Josko Gvardiol remains out long-term with a fractured leg.

Talking Tactics

Recent tactical shifts from Guardiola have seen the use of an unusual 4-1-3-2 formation, with Rodri as a sole defensive midfielder. This narrow shape strengthens central areas but can leave the defense exposed upon loss of possession, potentially creating opportunities for Arsenal to exploit a high defensive line. Guardiola could also revert to a more pragmatic 4-5-1 formation, similar to the one used in September’s league encounter at the Emirates Stadium, where City had just 33.2% possession.

City has conceded nine goals from 82 shots when defending set-pieces, presenting a potential avenue for Arsenal to capitalize on, particularly with Trafford likely to start in goal.

Facts and Stats

• Manchester City has won eight of their nine League Cup finals.
• Arsenal has had eight different goalscorers in the League Cup this season.
• Manchester City beat Arsenal in the 2018 League Cup final.
• Erling Haaland has scored in each of his last three games against Arsenal in all competitions, but has never scored in six appearances at Wembley.
• Rayan Cherki has been involved in four goals in his four League Cup appearances for City.
• Eberechi Eze could become the third player to score against an opponent in both a League Cup and an FA Cup final.
• Gabriel Martinelli has either scored or assisted in each of his last three appearances against City.
• Rodri has lost just one of his 14 appearances against Arsenal.

Match Officials

Peter Bankes will be the referee for the final, marking his first major final appointment. He has previously officiated 14 Arsenal games, with the Gunners winning 10 of those. Bankes also oversaw Arsenal’s recent north London derby victory and the semi-final second-leg win against Chelsea. Manchester City has played 12 games under Bankes, winning half and losing five.

• Referee: Peter Bankes
• Assistants: Neil Davies, Steve Meredith
• Fourth official: Tom Bramall
• VAR: John Brooks
• Assistant VAR: Dan Robathan

Wembley History with City

Arsenal has lost just one of their five meetings with Manchester City at Wembley, which was in the 2018 League Cup final. Since then, Arsenal has had the upper hand, with a recent triumph in August 2023 when a late Trossard goal forced a penalty shootout in the Community Shield, ultimately won by Fabio Vieira. Arsenal also secured a 2-0 win in the FA Cup semi-final in July 2020 and a 2-1 extra-time victory at the same stage of the competition in 2016/17. They also lifted the Community Shield in August 2014 with a 3-0 success against City.