Political Shift: Federal Budget Sparks Voter Volatility and Rise in One Nation Support

The Australian political landscape is undergoing a notable transformation following the delivery of the federal budget on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Recent polling data indicates that the government’s fiscal plan has triggered a decline in support for both the Australian Labor Party (ALP) and the Liberal-National Party (L-NP) Coalition, while One Nation has seen a significant increase in voter interest.

Budget Reactions and Political Realignment

Treasurer Jim Chalmers presented his fifth federal budget on May 12, which introduced several adjustments to fiscal policy. Key measures included modifications to the treatment of capital gains tax discounts, restrictions on negative gearing to newly built properties, and a series of tax cuts scheduled over the next two years. Opposition Leader Angus Taylor delivered the official reply on Thursday, May 14, where he outlined party vows to address bracket creep, reduce net migration to levels aligned with housing construction, and move away from current net-zero policy targets.

Data from a Roy Morgan survey, conducted between May 11 and May 17, 2026, with a representative cross-section of 1,668 electors, reflects a volatile climate. During this period, primary support for the ALP dropped by 1% to 29.5%, while the L-NP Coalition also fell by 1% to 24%. Conversely, One Nation experienced a 2.5% increase in support, rising to 24.5%. Meanwhile, the Greens held steady at 11.5%, and Independents and other parties remained largely unchanged at 10.5%.

Two-Party Preferred Outlook

Despite the shifts in primary support, the two-party preferred metrics continue to favor the incumbent government. On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP maintains a lead of 54% over the L-NP’s 46%. When adjusting for preference flows based on the 2025 Federal Election, the ALP holds 52.5% compared to the Coalition’s 47.5%.

Analysts are closely monitoring potential shifts in individual electorates, where future contests may increasingly pit the ALP against One Nation. In a recent post-budget SMS Morgan Poll, when preferences were allocated for Coalition, Greens, Independent, and other party supporters between the two, the ALP maintained a 54% lead over One Nation’s 46%.

Key Takeaways

• Primary Support Shifts: Both major parties saw a 1% decline in primary support following the budget release.
• One Nation Momentum: One Nation recorded a 2.5% boost, reaching 24.5% in the latest polling data.
• Policy Focus: The budget debate centered on capital gains tax, negative gearing, and migration levels, with the Opposition proposing a pivot on net-zero policies.
• Polling Context: The survey results are based on a representative sample of 1,668 Australians interviewed in the week following the budget announcement.

Looking Ahead

As the political fallout from the May budget continues to settle, the focus shifts to how these policy changes will influence long-term voter sentiment. With the next federal election on the horizon, the ability of both major parties to address voter concerns regarding the cost of living, housing, and migration will likely define the trajectory of the electorate. The current polling suggests a period of heightened competition, with minor parties gaining a larger share of the political conversation.