Tight Race in Baden-Württemberg: Özdemir and Hagel Vie for Kretschmann’s Legacy
Baden-Württemberg heads to the polls on March 8th in a closely contested election to replace long-serving Premier Winfried Kretschmann. The race pits Cem Özdemir of the Green Party against Manuel Hagel of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), with recent polls showing the two candidates neck and neck. The election is poised to have significant consequences for the state and potentially influence the broader political landscape in Germany.
The Candidates
Cem Özdemir (Alliance 90/The Greens)
Cem Özdemir, currently a Member of the Bundestag, previously served as Federal Minister of Food and Agriculture from 2021 to 2025. He co-led the Green Party from 2008 to 2018. Özdemir aims to continue Kretschmann’s policies whereas adapting to changing times. He emphasizes economic stability and education, followed by climate action, and takes a firm stance on consistent deportations of criminals, a position that differentiates him from some within his party.
Özdemir is consciously distancing himself from the more left-leaning elements of the Green Party, referencing the program adopted by the Berlin regional association as a “left-wing competition.” He seeks to project a more centrist image, echoing the approach of former Chancellor Angela Merkel with the slogan “My name is Cem Özdemir. You grasp me.”
Manuel Hagel (Christian Democratic Union)
Manuel Hagel, the CDU’s top candidate, aims to restore the CDU’s traditional dominance in Baden-Württemberg, which lasted from the 1950s until 2011. Recent polls give the CDU a slight lead, but Hagel faces a challenge in name recognition, with half of Baden-Württemberg residents surveyed stating they didn’t know him shortly before the election.
Hagel has faced scrutiny over an eight-year-old interview where he commented on the appearance of a high school student, leading to accusations of sexism. He has since described the statement as “crap.” He is open to exploring a potential coalition with the SPD and FDP, a so-called “Germany coalition,” focusing on economic policy, internal security, and education.
Key Issues and Potential Coalitions
Baden-Württemberg is an economically powerful state, home to major automotive manufacturers like Mercedes-Benz and Porsche, and a significant number of successful family-owned companies. The election focuses on maintaining economic strength, improving education, and addressing climate change.
Several coalition scenarios are possible following the election. A renewed Green-CDU coalition remains a strong possibility. Hagel has also floated the idea of a CDU-SPD-FDP coalition, but this would require a shift in the election results. Özdemir cautions against a three-party coalition, citing the challenges faced by the “traffic light” coalition at the federal level.
The Kretschmann Legacy
The election is largely seen as a referendum on the legacy of Winfried Kretschmann, who served as Premier for 15 years and is the first and only Green politician to hold the office. Both Özdemir and Hagel acknowledge Kretschmann’s impact and seek to build upon his achievements, albeit with different approaches.
Both candidates are taking aim at their opponents: Özdemir questions Hagel’s experience, while Hagel portrays Özdemir as overly focused on federal politics. Despite their differences, both candidates appear willing to work together in a potential coalition government.