2026 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 1)

It’s never too early to start thinking about the Oscars, and with 2024 already halfway over, it’s time to begin seriously considering who might be in the mix for the 2026 awards.Today, we’re diving into the Best Supporting Actress category, a race that frequently enough delivers some of the most exciting and unpredictable results.

This is Part 1 of our predictions, focusing on actresses who have already generated buzz or are attached to projects with Oscar potential. We’ll revisit this category throughout the year as more films are released and campaigns begin to take shape.

Early Frontrunners & Potential Contenders:

Zendaya (“Challengers”): While the film itself has divided critics, Zendaya’s performance is consistently praised as a standout. Her physicality and intensity could easily land her a nomination, and a strong awards campaign could push her to the forefront. This would be her first Oscar nomination. Da’vine Joy Randolph (“The Nickel Boys” – potential): Randolph is a consistently strong performer, and any role in a well-received, prestige drama will instantly put her on the radar. If “The Nickel Boys” adaptation lives up to expectations, she could be a major contender. She was nominated last year for “The Holdovers.”
Florence Pugh (“Dune: Part Two”): Pugh’s role in “Dune: Part Two” was smaller than anticipated, but she made a significant impact. Her presence in future installments, or a leading role in another high-profile project, could solidify her as a regular Oscar player.
Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”): Ronan is a five-time nominee, and her collaboration with director Steve McQueen on “Blitz” is generating considerable anticipation. A powerful performance in a McQueen film is almost guaranteed to attract Oscar attention.
Carey Mulligan (“The Beast in Me”): Mulligan is a two-time nominee and a critically acclaimed actress.Her upcoming role in “The Beast in Me” could provide her with another opportunity to showcase her range and earn a nomination.

Anya Taylor-Joy (“Furiosa: A mad Max Saga”): While action films rarely dominate the supporting categories,Taylor-Joy’s captivating performance in “Furiosa” shouldn’t be overlooked. If the film receives broader critical acclaim,she could sneak into the conversation.
Tilda Swinton (“Problemista”): swinton is a versatile and respected actress, and her quirky performance in “Problemista” has garnered positive reviews. Her willingness to take on unconventional roles could make her a surprise contender.
Julianne Moore (“May December”): Moore is a veteran actress with a long history of Oscar nominations. Her performance in “May December” is already generating buzz, and she could be a strong contender if the film resonates with voters.
Hong Chau (“Megalopolis”): Chau received a nomination for “the Whale” and is a consistently excellent performer. Francis Ford Coppola’s “Megalopolis” is a wildcard, but if it connects with audiences, Chau could be rewarded.

the Film’s Overall Reception: A strong performance in a poorly received film rarely translates into an Oscar nomination.
The Strength of the Competition: This category is frequently enough crowded with talented actresses, making it challenging to stand out.
Awards Season Momentum: Early wins at film festivals and critics’ awards can substantially boost a candidate’s chances.
* Campaigning: A well-executed awards campaign can make all the difference.

This is just the beginning of the conversation. As more films are released and the awards season unfolds, the landscape will undoubtedly shift. We’ll be back with Part 2 soon to update our predictions and analyze the latest developments.

2026 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 1)

Beginning a new thread.