:quality(82)/757fb6df64ca4a478ab1bcffcb1515f9 "Bitcoin Drops Below 50-Week Moving Average After Seven-Week Streak")
Bitcoin closed the week ending November 8 at $74,968, which sits 0.7% below its 50-week moving average according to beincrypto.com reporting.
That decline ended a seven-week streak above a technical line that Galaxy’s Alex Thorn had tied to past bear market bottoms.
Market attention now shifts toward the June 28 weekly close of $59,517, representing the cycle’s lowest point. Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, noted that the entire sample size of post-bottom reclaims stands at just five cycles since 2012.
The 50-week moving average calculates the simple average of Bitcoin’s last 50 weekly closes. Bitcoin reclaimed this threshold on September 20, 12 weeks after registering its June low. Following an initial reclaim close at $81,195, the cryptocurrency maintained positions above the average for seven consecutive weeks before sliding to the November 8 level.
2025–26 so far high $123,524 (Oct 5, 2025) > lost the 50w Nov 16 > low $59,517 June 28, 2026 (−51.8%) > reclaimed Sept. 20 (+3.1% vs the 50w, 12 weeks after the low) > held seven weeks > the Nov 8 close $74,968, 0.7% below the 50w ($75,488), −7.7% vs the reclaim close, 26%… pic.twitter.com/JJZRl16Esv
Thorn analyzed historical data showing that previous losses of this specific line did not automatically invalidate cycle bottoms. During the 2011-12 and 2019-20 cycles, Bitcoin similarly dipped below the moving average after a reclaim before ultimately pressing on to regain prior price highs within two years.
| Cycle Year | Reclaim Cushion Above Bear Low | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-12 | 223% | Fell below line for 20 weeks; bear low survived |
| 2019-20 | 79% | Dipped below line 5 times; bear low survived |
| 2026 | 36% | Dropped 7.7% from reclaim close by November 8 |
Thorn cautioned that the initial cushion size does not reliably predict future outcomes. The 2012 reclaim failed after starting 18% above the line, whereas the 2015 reclaim successfully held from an 8% cushion.
The immediate test for the asset centers on weekly closes relative to the 50-week moving average, which currently hovers near $75,488. Further downside support rests at the 200-week moving average near $67,746. Thorn emphasized that the foundational June low of $59,517 must remain intact for the broader bottom call to stand.